The Child

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$10.99

10.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

99.92%

EV $10.98 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.30%

10.9K openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99.37%±6.861,216 openings

7 days

97.83%±2.509,161 openings

30 days

98.30%±2.2910.9K openings

since tracking started

98.30%±2.2910.9K openings

92.0%99.5%107.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,216	99.37%±6.86	−0.2σ	odds
7d	9,161	97.83%±2.50	−1.6σ	odds
30d	10.9K	98.30%±2.29	−1.4σ	odds
All	10.9K	98.30%±2.29	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 1,000	$157 157 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	17	10.9	1.56×
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 667	$119 119 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	19	16.3	1.16×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 400	$99.59 99.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	23	27.2	0.84×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 286	$89.00 89 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	33	38.1	0.87×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 286	$77.68 77.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	36	38.1	0.94×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 250	$71.94 71.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	41	43.6	0.94×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 222	$61.03 61.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	35	49.0	0.71×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 182	$51.63 51.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	56	59.9	0.93×
★ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 167	$47.14 47.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	66	65.4	1.01×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 167	$44.10 44.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	51	65.4	0.78×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 143	$38.52 38.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	68	76.3	0.89×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$37.22 37.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	73	76.3	0.96×
Galil AR \| Tornado (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 125	$28.82 28.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	79	87.2	0.91×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 111	$26.83 26.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	86	98.1	0.88×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$19.21 19.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	93	108.9	0.85×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 50	$16.36 16.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	230	217.9	1.06×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 50	$15.07 15.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	212	217.9	0.97×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$13.46 13.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	351	326.8	1.07×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$12.17 12.17 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	438	435.8	1.01×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$11.36 11.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	576	544.7	1.06×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$10.91 10.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	564	544.7	1.04×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$10.56 10.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	536	544.7	0.98×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$9.66 9.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	632	599.2	1.05×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$8.33 8.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	634	653.7	0.97×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon	1 in 17	$8.08 8.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	694	653.7	1.06×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$7.55 7.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	777	762.6	1.02×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$6.31 6.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	618	653.7	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$5.92 5.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	627	653.7	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$5.46 5.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	608	653.7	0.93×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$5.14 5.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	673	653.7	1.03×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$4.61 4.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	588	610.1	0.96×
Tec-9 \| Isaac (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$3.97 3.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	547	544.7	1.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$3.34 3.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	463	435.8	1.06×
MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$2.00 2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	351	326.8	1.07×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specGeralt$10.9910.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.5610.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.96x1m

Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec GradeGeralt$10.9910.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$26.8326.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.44x1m

Tec-9 | Isaac (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specАШАЛЕТЬ$10.9910.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.973.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.36x4m

P90 | Blind Spot (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetPRPPRRESDINT RPAOTUR$10.9910.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.1712.17 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.11x4m

XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedI <3 Panda$10.9910.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$11.3611.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.03x5m

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted吟风咏湖雨$10.9910.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.9110.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.99x5m

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricteddsf$10.9910.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.9110.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.99x5m

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert†ҜØНɆҸНѦЯ†$10.9910.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$38.5238.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.51x8m

MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical†ҜØНɆҸНѦЯ†$10.9910.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.465.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.50x8m

MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified†ҜØНɆҸНѦЯ†$10.9910.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.4613.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.22x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 99.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$10.99	99.92%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedImmortal 0.7%covert knife 1.0%covert 0.7%red 0.3%classified 22.1%Mythical 13.6%Covert 0.7%consumer 0.8%Mil Spec Grade 0.9%Mil Spec 2.0%pink 2.0%violet 4.0%restricted 16.5%mil spec 16.0%other 6.0%blue 5.6%#8847ff 7.0%best hit —