Nosferatu

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$12.90

12.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

85.14%

EV $10.98 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.17%

10.1K openings, odds method

Variance

2.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.98%±9.501,133 openings

7 days

84.27%±3.478,479 openings

30 days

84.17%±3.1910.1K openings

since tracking started

84.17%±3.1910.1K openings

75.0%85.0%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,133	84.98%±9.50	−0.0σ	odds
7d	8,479	84.27%±3.47	−0.5σ	odds
30d	10.1K	84.17%±3.19	−0.6σ	odds
All	10.1K	84.17%±3.19	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 1,000	$246 246 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	17	10.1	1.68×
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$235 235 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	9	10.1	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$210 210 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	15	20.2	0.74×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 333	$183 183 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	28	30.3	0.92×
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 286	$147 147 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	22	35.3	0.62×
★ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 222	$90.13 90.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	43	45.4	0.95×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 143	$65.20 65.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	68	70.7	0.96×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 125	$45.44 45.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	88	80.8	1.09×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$40.93 40.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	115	100.9	1.14×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$31.23 31.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	111	100.9	1.10×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 100	$25.20 25.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	76	100.9	0.75×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$22.85 22.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	146	151.4	0.96×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$21.68 21.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	163	151.4	1.08×
Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$18.44 18.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	226	201.9	1.12×
Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$16.04 16.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	203	201.9	1.01×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$13.43 13.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	334	302.8	1.10×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$11.19 11.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.1%	513	504.7	1.02×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$10.28 10.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	481	504.7	0.95×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$9.50 9.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	616	605.6	1.02×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$8.76 8.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	594	605.6	0.98×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$7.06 7.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	618	605.6	1.02×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$6.31 6.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	580	605.6	0.96×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$6.14 6.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	596	605.6	0.98×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| 27 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 17	$6.02 6.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	579	605.6	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$5.64 5.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	604	605.6	1.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$4.38 4.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	500	504.7	0.99×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 20	$3.80 3.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	540	504.7	1.07×
SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$3.71 3.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	494	504.7	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$3.36 3.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	520	504.7	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$2.72 2.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	397	403.8	0.98×
AWP \| Exothermic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$2.41 2.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	412	403.8	1.02×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$1.38 1.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	386	403.8	0.96×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedДисКриминант$12.9012.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$7.067.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x4m

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedBlackHole [ZCM]$12.9012.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.4313.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.04x4m

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedBELL [Mosnatic]$12.9012.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.645.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x4m

StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedNiah$12.9012.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.768.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.68x4m

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedI <3 Panda$12.9012.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.645.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x6m

Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec吟风咏湖雨$12.9012.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.363.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.26x6m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricteddsf$12.9012.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$7.067.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x6m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedI <3 Panda$12.9012.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.509.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.74x6m

StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified吟风咏湖雨$12.9012.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.146.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.48x6m

USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classifieddsf$12.9012.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$21.6821.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.68x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.14%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$12.90	85.14%	32

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 0.1%covert 0.4%covert knife 0.2%#ffd700 0.3%gold 0.5%red 0.7%Legendary 0.8%classified 34.5%milspec 7.0%restricted 21.5%Rare 2.0%pink 5.0%Classified 5.0%Mythical 5.0%mil spec 5.0%violet 8.0%#8847ff 4.0%best hit —