Marble Pumpkin

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$17.50

17.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

102.71%

EV $17.97 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

100.21%

9,472 openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

101.53%±11.071,053 openings

7 days

99.06%±4.057,864 openings

30 days

100.21%±3.699,472 openings

since tracking started

100.21%±3.699,472 openings

90.0%101.5%113.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,053	101.53%±11.1	−0.2σ	odds
7d	7,864	99.06%±4.05	−1.8σ	odds
30d	9,472	100.21%±3.69	−1.4σ	odds
All	9,472	100.21%±3.69	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,491 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 2,000	$1,126 1,126 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	3	4.7	0.63×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 1,000	$304 304 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	9	9.5	0.95×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$221 221 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	7	9.5	0.74×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$184 184 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	19	19.0	1.00×
★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 400	$178 178 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	26	23.7	1.10×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$148 148 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	4	23.7	0.17×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$119 119 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	26	28.5	0.91×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 333	$93.79 93.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	32	28.5	1.12×
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 222	$72.98 72.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	40	42.7	0.94×
★ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$65.93 65.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	48	47.5	1.01×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 167	$53.72 53.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	54	56.9	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$40.85 40.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	54	66.4	0.81×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 125	$31.75 31.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	63	75.9	0.83×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$28.81 28.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	100	94.9	1.05×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$26.41 26.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	102	94.9	1.07×
FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 71	$25.93 25.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	131	132.9	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$23.24 23.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	187	189.8	0.99×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$22.91 22.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	191	189.8	1.01×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$21.38 21.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	278	284.7	0.98×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$20.99 20.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	347	379.6	0.91×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$19.24 19.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.4%	445	474.5	0.94×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$18.08 18.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	460	474.5	0.97×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$17.32 17.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	469	474.5	0.99×
P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 18	$17.04 17.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	483	522.0	0.93×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 17	$16.66 16.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.6%	535	569.5	0.94×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 17	$15.23 15.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.1%	613	569.5	1.08×
XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$14.68 14.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.9%	575	569.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$13.21 13.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	146	522.0	0.28×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$12.18 12.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	479	474.5	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 20	$11.40 11.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	480	474.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$10.01 10.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	486	474.5	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$8.11 8.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	470	474.5	0.99×
USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$7.20 7.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	519	474.5	1.09×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 20	$6.52 6.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	468	474.5	0.99×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$4.18 4.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	385	379.6	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$3.24 3.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	285	284.7	1.00×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · CovertNeiru$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1261,126 HOTPIZZA_POINT64.32x10h

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · CovertBlury$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1261,126 HOTPIZZA_POINT64.32x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · CovertCrayola - Sour Cream$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1261,126 HOTPIZZA_POINT64.32x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted☯•S么MUR么I•☯$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.2113.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.75x10m

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiediq. KiKaN$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.118.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.46x12m

StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedActinoid$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$19.2419.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.10x14m

M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedусейн болтарез$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.1812.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.70x14m

AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedCodeRaider$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$28.8128.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.65x14m

M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedMtnDewOverDose$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.1812.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.70x16m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedboop$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.0110.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.57x16m

Desert Eagle | Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · UncommonMtnDewOverDose$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$11.4011.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.65x16m

StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedboop$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$19.2419.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.10x16m

M4A1-S | Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedLuh Space$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$23.2423.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.33x20m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 102.71%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$17.50	102.71%	36
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$17.50	102.85%	36
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$17.50	103.10%	36

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.1%covert 1.4%covert knife 1.0%#ffd700 0.3%gold 1.1%Legendary 0.8%classified 33.0%restricted 7.9%Mythical 4.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%#d32ce6 11.5%rare 6.0%mil spec 6.0%Uncommon 5.0%#4b69ff 5.0%Classified 5.0%pink 7.0%best hit $1,126 (64.32x)