Norman

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$32.75

32.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

104.78%

EV $34.32 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

102.77%

8,064 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.22%±10.91967 openings

7 days

103.14%±4.156,692 openings

30 days

102.77%±3.788,064 openings

since tracking started

102.77%±3.788,064 openings

82.5%95.3%108.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	967	94.22%±10.9	−1.9σ	odds
7d	6,692	103.14%±4.15	−0.8σ	odds
30d	8,064	102.77%±3.78	−1.0σ	odds
All	8,064	102.77%±3.78	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,096 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,000	$1,100 1,100 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	9	8.1	1.11×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 667	$577 577 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	11	12.1	0.91×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 400	$462 462 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	17	20.2	0.84×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1	1 in 333	$312 312 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	20	24.3	0.82×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 250	$283 283 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	35	32.4	1.08×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$229 229 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	32	40.5	0.79×
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$180 180 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	36	40.5	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 200	$161 161 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	44	40.5	1.09×
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$146 146 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	50	40.5	1.24×
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$142 142 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	52	48.6	1.07×
★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 167	$108 108 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	34	48.6	0.70×
★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · rare	1 in 143	$63.32 63.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	58	56.7	1.02×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 111	$56.41 56.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	60	72.9	0.82×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$46.85 46.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	90	81.0	1.11×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 50	$41.57 41.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	130	161.9	0.80×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$39.91 39.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	159	161.9	0.98×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$38.39 38.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	244	242.9	1.00×
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$33.41 33.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	73	81.0	0.90×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$32.78 32.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	291	323.8	0.90×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$32.63 32.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	361	404.8	0.89×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$30.64 30.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.4%	551	485.8	1.13×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$30.25 30.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.3%	453	485.8	0.93×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$28.24 28.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.9%	499	485.8	1.03×
Souvenir Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 17	$25.16 25.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	499	485.8	1.03×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$24.47 24.47 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	483	485.8	0.99×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$23.26 23.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	473	485.8	0.97×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$22.19 22.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	395	404.8	0.98×
FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$21.19 21.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	412	404.8	1.02×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$20.40 20.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	519	485.8	1.07×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$18.85 18.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	399	404.8	0.99×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$17.82 17.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	345	323.8	1.07×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$15.66 15.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	341	323.8	1.05×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$12.88 12.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	319	323.8	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$11.09 11.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	354	323.8	1.09×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 33	$7.26 7.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	248	242.9	1.02×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Bortoli$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1001,100 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.59x1d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1?cristy69@FCD$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1001,100 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.59x1d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Akali$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1001,100 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.59x1d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Algebra$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1001,100 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.59x1d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1ItsHayden2016$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1001,100 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.59x3d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1BonJour$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1001,100 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.59x3d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1KingRon$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1001,100 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.59x6d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Niko$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1001,100 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.59x6d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Rag$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1001,100 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.59x7d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldCamilowo$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$577577 HOTPIZZA_POINT17.63x11h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertChocolate 🦄🦄$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$39.9139.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.22x45s

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · RareChocolate 🦄🦄$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$24.4724.47 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.75x45s

StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedDemetrius Morris$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$28.2428.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.86x4m

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3Demetrius Morris$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$283283 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.63x4m

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifieddante$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$30.6430.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.94x8m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricteddante$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.8217.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.54x8m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedArTz >:)$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$28.2428.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.86x8m

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedArTz >:)$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$15.6615.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.48x8m

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedKazrakazahn$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$30.6430.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.94x11m

StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedKazrakazahn$32.7532.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$32.7832.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.00x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 104.78%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$32.75	104.78%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.3%gold 2.2%other 0.3%covert knife 1.1%rare 2.2%Classified 3.0%mil spec 10.0%classified 26.0%restricted 25.0%Restricted 6.0%Rare 6.0%pink 5.0%uncommon 3.0%best hit $1,100 (33.59x)