Carlitto

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$48.80

48.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

102.92%

EV $50.23 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

103.44%

6,982 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.13%±12.39743 openings

7 days

103.78%±4.435,803 openings

30 days

103.44%±4.046,982 openings

since tracking started

103.44%±4.046,982 openings

83.0%96.0%109.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	743	96.13%±12.4	−1.1σ	odds
7d	5,803	103.78%±4.43	+0.4σ	odds
30d	6,982	103.44%±4.04	+0.3σ	odds
All	6,982	103.44%±4.04	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,996 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$3,249 3,249 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$2,027 2,027 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	5	2.8	1.79×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal	1 in 667	$832 832 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	13	10.5	1.24×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 333	$726 726 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	19	21.0	0.91×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 286	$597 597 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	29	24.5	1.18×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 250	$269 269 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	26	28.0	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic	1 in 200	$235 235 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	34	35.0	0.97×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 200	$213 213 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	38	35.0	1.09×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$182 182 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	40	35.0	1.14×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$152 152 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	29	38.5	0.75×
AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 167	$142 142 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	42	42.0	1.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$132 132 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	33	42.0	0.79×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 143	$108 108 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	53	49.0	1.08×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$92.40 92.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	53	56.0	0.95×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$86.44 86.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	56	70.0	0.80×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$83.72 83.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	67	70.0	0.96×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$82.44 82.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	56	70.0	0.80×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$79.27 79.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	65	70.0	0.93×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$65.46 65.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	76	70.0	1.09×
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$61.79 61.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	104	104.9	0.99×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 67	$58.75 58.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	111	104.9	1.06×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 50	$57.18 57.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	142	139.9	1.01×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$56.27 56.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	213	209.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$49.60 49.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.9%	340	349.8	0.97×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$47.48 47.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	346	349.8	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$44.72 44.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	361	349.8	1.03×
USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$41.35 41.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.9%	389	419.8	0.93×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$40.03 40.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.6%	505	489.7	1.03×
MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$39.08 39.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.4%	460	489.7	0.94×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$36.20 36.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	529	489.7	1.08×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$32.36 32.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	455	489.7	0.93×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$28.28 28.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	524	489.7	1.07×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14	$25.38 25.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	489	489.7	1.00×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$22.62 22.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	345	349.8	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$20.11 20.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	291	279.8	1.04×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$14.43 14.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	277	279.8	0.99×
AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$12.94 12.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	222	209.9	1.06×
G3SG1 \| Stinger (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 50	$9.66 9.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	159	139.9	1.14×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covertBradac$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,0272,027 HOTPIZZA_POINT41.53x1d

AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covertH4zl33N$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,0272,027 HOTPIZZA_POINT41.53x1d

AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covertHalfer$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,0272,027 HOTPIZZA_POINT41.53x2d

AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covertFaTiGaa.Dattebayo$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,0272,027 HOTPIZZA_POINT41.53x3d

AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covertBastiE$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,0272,027 HOTPIZZA_POINT41.53x5d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalŚwiatowy Menel$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$832832 HOTPIZZA_POINT17.06x35m

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortalcock-sucker$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$832832 HOTPIZZA_POINT17.06x14h

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalШЛЯПЕНГАУЗЕР$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$832832 HOTPIZZA_POINT17.06x1d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalGh[0]sT$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$832832 HOTPIZZA_POINT17.06x1d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalHydran$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$832832 HOTPIZZA_POINT17.06x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedfygozerAA$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$47.4847.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.97x2m

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)weapon · Legendaryeternity :v$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$14.4314.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.30x2m

StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedDanjgem$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$40.0340.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.82x2m

AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial𝓛𝓲𝓬𝓴 𝓶𝓮$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$56.2756.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.15x2m

AWP | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · AncientaBoBocka$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$65.4665.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.34x7m

USP-S | Para Green (Factory New)weapon · industrialaBoBocka$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$41.3541.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.85x7m

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified不拿控制死全家$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$47.4847.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.97x14m

SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classified不拿控制死全家$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$44.7244.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.92x14m

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare不拿控制死全家$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$57.1857.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.17x14m

MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted不拿控制死全家$48.8048.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT$39.0839.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.80x14m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 102.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$48.80	102.92%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.7%Immortal 0.1%#EB4B4B 0.3%epic 0.5%Ancient 1.5%classified 25.2%red 0.6%restricted 41.5%industrial 10.5%rare 2.0%mil spec 5.0%Legendary 4.0%#4b69ff 3.0%Restricted 2.0%best hit $2,027 (41.53x)