Pizza Superhero

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$105.00

105 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

88.62%

EV $93.05 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.21%

5,629 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.52%±6.21652 openings

7 days

89.24%±2.324,669 openings

30 days

89.21%±2.125,629 openings

since tracking started

89.21%±2.125,629 openings

82.5%89.5%96.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	652	89.52%±6.21	+0.3σ	odds
7d	4,669	89.24%±2.32	+0.5σ	odds
30d	5,629	89.21%±2.12	+0.5σ	odds
All	5,629	89.21%±2.12	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,642 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,041 1,041 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	7	5.6	1.24×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$721 721 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	0	5.6	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 500	$689 689 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	14	11.3	1.24×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$608 608 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	7	16.9	0.41×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 333	$550 550 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	22	16.9	1.30×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 333	$521 521 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	16	16.9	0.95×
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$410 410 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	21	22.6	0.93×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 250	$393 393 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	26	22.6	1.15×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 250	$276 276 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	29	22.6	1.29×
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 200	$257 257 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	32	28.2	1.13×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 167	$233 233 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	34	33.9	1.00×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$226 226 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	28	33.9	0.83×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 143	$217 217 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	40	39.5	1.01×
★ StatTrak™ Flip KnifeStatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 143	$213 213 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	46	39.5	1.16×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$206 206 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	57	56.4	1.01×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$191 191 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	41	56.4	0.73×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$188 188 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	57	56.4	1.01×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$172 172 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	67	56.4	1.19×
★ Bayonet \| Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$153 153 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	49	56.4	0.87×
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$142 142 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	70	56.4	1.24×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 100	$131 131 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	57	56.4	1.01×
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	56	56.4	0.99×
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 40	$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	140	141.0	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 25	$120 120 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	210	225.7	0.93×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 22	$114 114 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.5%	260	253.9	1.02×
★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$106 106 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.7%	291	282.1	1.03×
★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 20	$91.99 91.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.9%	275	282.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$89.88 89.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	279	282.1	0.99×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 20	$87.28 87.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	280	282.1	0.99×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 20	$81.36 81.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	279	282.1	0.99×
★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 20	$77.11 77.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	295	282.1	1.05×
★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$73.69 73.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	302	282.1	1.07×
★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$71.82 71.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	232	225.7	1.03×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$64.22 64.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	217	225.7	0.96×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$61.34 61.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	236	225.7	1.05×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$59.22 59.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	249	225.7	1.10×
Souvenir AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 25	$41.38 41.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	212	225.7	0.94×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 25	$33.96 33.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	215	225.7	0.95×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$30.76 30.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	217	225.7	0.96×
Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 25	$22.98 22.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	228	225.7	1.01×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$20.90 20.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	136	135.4	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$20.27 20.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	208	225.7	0.92×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 50	$15.54 15.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	97	112.8	0.86×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertceanma$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0411,041 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.91x6h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertики исодээ$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0411,041 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.91x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertdecept$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0411,041 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.91x3d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertJaneczek$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0411,041 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.91x3d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertFlipit.gg$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0411,041 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.91x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertBOY NEXT DOOR$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0411,041 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.91x6d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertGivedrop.ru MILF HUNTER$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0411,041 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.91x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertIuvenali$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$737737 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.02x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertЯ хохол$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$737737 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.02x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertBixent3$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$737737 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.02x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Propaganda (Well-Worn)weapon · Classifiedfoifan$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$33.9633.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.32x4m

★ Bayonet | Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · coverthuseiJN$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$153153 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.46x9m

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covertGigas Waifu$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$59.2259.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.56x13m

★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertblandi#rustysaloon$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$81.3681.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.77x15m

★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · goldederguedesdosantos23$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$87.2887.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.83x15m

Souvenir AWP | Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · ClassifiedBlueFour$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$41.3841.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.39x17m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary0ItsWolf$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$30.7630.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.29x28m

★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · goldGrimm$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$87.2887.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.83x28m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedaBoBocka$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$89.8889.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.86x28m

Souvenir AWP | Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · ClassifiedSammy39$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$41.3841.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.39x29m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.62%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
4 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$105	88.62%	43
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$105	88.79%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 38.9%covert knife 16.2%sunny 0.5%Immortal 1.0%classified 11.4%gold 10.0%Classified 8.0%Legendary 4.0%Restricted 4.0%#8847ff 4.0%#d32ee6 2.0%best hit $1,041 (9.91x)