Frankie

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$143.00

143 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

89.11%

EV $127.42 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.47%

5,175 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.82%±6.84577 openings

7 days

87.56%±2.584,179 openings

30 days

87.47%±2.325,175 openings

since tracking started

87.47%±2.325,175 openings

84.5%92.0%99.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	577	91.82%±6.84	+0.8σ	odds
7d	4,179	87.56%±2.58	−1.1σ	odds
30d	5,175	87.47%±2.32	−1.3σ	odds
All	5,175	87.47%±2.32	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,184 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,000	$1,448 1,448 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	9	5.2	1.74×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,000	$1,248 1,248 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	4	5.2	0.77×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,000	$1,171 1,171 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	4	5.2	0.77×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,000	$1,161 1,161 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	5	5.2	0.96×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$1,111 1,111 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	3	5.2	0.58×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 500	$853 853 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	1	10.4	0.10×
★ StatTrak™ M9 BayonetStatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 500	$774 774 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	0	10.4	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 333	$674 674 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	0	15.6	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 333	$643 643 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	14	15.6	0.90×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$572 572 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	1	20.7	0.05×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 250	$481 481 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	1	20.7	0.05×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 250	$426 426 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	2	20.7	0.10×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 200	$390 390 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	2	25.9	0.08×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$353 353 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	3	25.9	0.12×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 167	$344 344 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	24	31.1	0.77×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 143	$286 286 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	31	36.3	0.85×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 143	$281 281 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	28	36.3	0.77×
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 143	$232 232 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	37	36.3	1.02×
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 125	$228 228 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	54	41.5	1.30×
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 111	$217 217 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	35	46.7	0.75×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$213 213 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	53	51.8	1.02×
★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$196 196 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	56	51.8	1.08×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$185 185 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	41	51.8	0.79×
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$185 185 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	57	51.8	1.10×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 100	$182 182 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	48	51.8	0.93×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$171 171 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	55	51.8	1.06×
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$166 166 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	51	51.8	0.98×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$151 151 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	118	103.7	1.14×
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 40	$142 142 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	147	129.6	1.13×
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$131 131 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	151	155.5	0.97×
★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$128 128 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	162	155.5	1.04×
★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert	1 in 25	$120 120 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	207	207.4	1.00×
★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$118 118 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	271	259.2	1.05×
★ Classic Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 17	$116 116 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.5%	271	311.0	0.87×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri KnifeStatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 17	$111 111 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	316	311.0	1.02×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 14	$103 103 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.7%	367	362.9	1.01×
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 14	$98.11 98.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.4%	365	362.9	1.01×
★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 14	$81.06 81.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	385	383.6	1.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$78.97 78.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	257	259.2	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 20	$77.74 77.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	257	259.2	0.99×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$74.60 74.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	261	259.2	1.01×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$68.06 68.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	229	207.4	1.10×
★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 25	$67.04 67.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	210	207.4	1.01×
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$55.92 55.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	147	155.5	0.95×
★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 33	$48.67 48.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	145	155.5	0.93×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$41.46 41.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	170	155.5	1.09×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4DoggerTheCreator$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5441,544 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.79x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4funko pop$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5441,544 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.79x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4crazywisler$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5441,544 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.79x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4BigGulp$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5441,544 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.79x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4joker2109$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5441,544 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.79x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Fluffel3$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5441,544 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.79x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Dachs$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4481,448 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.12x16h

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4DipZYYY$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4481,448 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.12x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4темчик Cum Shot$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4481,448 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.12x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4! Reverse | S>Games/Levels ¡$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3481,348 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.43x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Paracord Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · rareLoyal #gains.gg$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$67.0467.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.47x22s

★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covertRetro226$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$142142 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.99x2m

★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covertAJuicyOrange$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$182182 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.27x4m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertMaladis$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$41.4641.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.29x10m

★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeMadory$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$116116 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.81x19m

★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · goldMadory$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$98.1198.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x19m

★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeMadory$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$68.0668.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.48x19m

★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covertMadory$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$185185 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.29x19m

★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · gold4keef$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$98.1198.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x34m

★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · golddasontto$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT$98.1198.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x34m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.11%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$143	89.11%	46
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$143	88.83%	46
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$143	89.09%	46

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 41.6%covert knife 25.3%gold 10.3%#EB4B4B 0.4%#ffd700 8.6%Covert 4.8%red 5.0%rare 4.0%best hit $1,544 (10.79x)