BOSS

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$235.00

235 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

91.93%

EV $216.04 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.53%

3,497 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.01%±8.03372 openings

7 days

90.55%±2.882,887 openings

30 days

90.53%±2.623,497 openings

since tracking started

90.53%±2.623,497 openings

81.5%90.0%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	372	90.01%±8.03	−0.5σ	odds
7d	2,887	90.55%±2.88	−0.9σ	odds
30d	3,497	90.53%±2.62	−1.0σ	odds
All	3,497	90.53%±2.62	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,505 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,000	$3,266 3,266 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	3	3.5	0.86×
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$2,551 2,551 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	6	3.5	1.71×
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$1,708 1,708 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	3	3.5	0.86×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$1,308 1,308 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	6	3.5	1.71×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$1,169 1,169 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	1	3.5	0.29×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 667	$990 990 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	4	5.3	0.76×
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$917 917 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	11	7.0	1.57×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$851 851 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	13	14.0	0.93×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$768 768 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	9	14.0	0.64×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 250	$638 638 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	13	14.0	0.93×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$625 625 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	19	17.5	1.08×
★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$599 599 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	3	17.5	0.17×
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$573 573 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	17	17.5	0.97×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$568 568 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	21	17.5	1.20×
★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$541 541 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	9	17.5	0.51×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 182	$474 474 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	18	19.3	0.93×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 167	$445 445 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	17	21.0	0.81×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$438 438 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	32	35.0	0.91×
★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 100	$419 419 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	36	35.0	1.03×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$406 406 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	41	35.0	1.17×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$376 376 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	33	35.0	0.94×
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Battle-Scarred)gloves · epic	1 in 100	$357 357 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	19	35.0	0.54×
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$321 321 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	33	35.0	0.94×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$318 318 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	32	35.0	0.91×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 50	$273 273 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	59	70.1	0.84×
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$262 262 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	62	70.1	0.88×
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$245 245 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	87	87.6	0.99×
★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$233 233 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	122	105.1	1.16×
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$230 230 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	104	105.1	0.99×
★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 33	$228 228 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	111	105.1	1.06×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 25	$209 209 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	134	140.2	0.96×
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$209 209 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	142	140.2	1.01×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Battle-Scarred)gloves · #eb4b4b	1 in 25	$205 205 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	142	140.2	1.01×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$196 196 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	28	175.2	0.16×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 17	$187 187 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	206	203.3	1.01×
★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$176 176 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	27	140.2	0.19×
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold	1 in 25	$168 168 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	123	140.2	0.88×
★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 25	$158 158 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	162	140.2	1.16×
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$145 145 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	36	140.2	0.26×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$137 137 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	137	140.2	0.98×
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$129 129 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	130	140.2	0.93×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$124 124 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	146	140.2	1.04×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$120 120 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	38	140.2	0.27×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$118 118 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	149	140.2	1.06×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$115 115 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	32	140.2	0.23×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$107 107 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	30	140.2	0.21×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$94.60 94.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	116	105.1	1.10×
★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 50	$89.34 89.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	59	70.1	0.84×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary@sensy3100$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3,2663,266 HOTPIZZA_POINT13.90x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendaryFW$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3,2663,266 HOTPIZZA_POINT13.90x2d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendaryhome depot$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3,2663,266 HOTPIZZA_POINT13.90x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryMarge Simpson$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5512,551 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.85x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryKarma$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5512,551 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.85x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryBstewie$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5512,551 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.85x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary✪ кɛlɔ$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5512,551 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.85x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryAndrep$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5512,551 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.85x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryjapaa'$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5512,551 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.85x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarygrandfiLL$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,7081,708 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.27x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryЧёрная магия, это$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$118118 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.50x2m

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryЧёрная магия, это$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$107107 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.46x2m

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryЧёрная магия, это$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$245245 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.04x2m

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha (Field-Tested)gloves · ImmortalЧёрная магия, это$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$89.3489.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.38x2m

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Battle-Scarred)gloves · goldskrulax$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$168168 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x4m

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryДисКриминант$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$145145 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.62x13m

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryBlackHole [ZCM]$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$118118 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.50x13m

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryBELL [Mosnatic]$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$124124 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.53x13m

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryNiah$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$94.6094.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.40x13m

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryN°13 Roxas$235235 HOTPIZZA_POINT$318318 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.35x20m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$235	91.93%	48
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$235	91.79%	48
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$235	91.81%	48

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 5.1%extraordinary 68.2%epic 6.8%gold 6.0%rare 8.0%#eb4b4b 4.0%Immortal 2.0%best hit $3,266 (13.90x)