Pablitto

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$399.00

399 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

87.10%

EV $347.54 from 58 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.73%

3,133 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.50%±7.91389 openings

7 days

87.02%±3.052,623 openings

30 days

87.73%±2.793,133 openings

since tracking started

87.73%±2.793,133 openings

77.0%85.5%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	389	85.50%±7.91	−0.4σ	odds
7d	2,623	87.02%±3.05	−0.1σ	odds
30d	3,133	87.73%±2.79	+0.4σ	odds
All	3,133	87.73%±2.79	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values58 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,164 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$6,409 6,409 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	2	1.6	1.26×
M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband	1 in 2,000	$6,063 6,063 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	0	1.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 2,000	$5,266 5,266 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	4	1.6	2.53×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 2,000	$2,893 2,893 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	3	1.6	1.90×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 2,000	$2,393 2,393 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · knifes	1 in 2,000	$2,084 2,084 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	2	1.6	1.26×
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,848 1,848 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	5	3.2	1.58×
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 1,000	$1,722 1,722 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	6	3.2	1.90×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$1,630 1,630 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	4	3.2	1.26×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 1,000	$1,390 1,390 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	4	3.2	1.26×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$1,309 1,309 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	7	6.3	1.11×
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 500	$1,302 1,302 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	10	6.3	1.58×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$1,287 1,287 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	7	6.3	1.11×
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 400	$1,122 1,122 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	3	7.9	0.38×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 250	$1,079 1,079 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	16	12.7	1.26×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 250	$1,079 1,079 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	13	12.7	1.03×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 200	$1,056 1,056 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	15	15.8	0.95×
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$996 996 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	10	15.8	0.63×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$938 938 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	9	15.8	0.57×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 200	$899 899 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	17	15.8	1.07×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$871 871 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	14	15.8	0.88×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 200	$812 812 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	10	15.8	0.63×
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 182	$743 743 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	21	17.4	1.21×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 167	$704 704 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	21	19.0	1.11×
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 167	$701 701 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	15	19.0	0.79×
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 143	$640 640 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	21	22.1	0.95×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 143	$629 629 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	24	22.1	1.08×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 143	$613 613 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	23	22.1	1.04×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 100	$566 566 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	35	31.6	1.11×
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$564 564 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	23	31.6	0.73×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$540 540 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	32	31.6	1.01×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$504 504 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	24	31.6	0.76×
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$489 489 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	19	31.6	0.60×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$479 479 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	30	31.6	0.95×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$478 478 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	30	31.6	0.95×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$460 460 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	27	31.6	0.85×
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$438 438 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	60	63.3	0.95×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$407 407 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	78	63.3	1.23×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 50	$404 404 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	64	63.3	1.01×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$399 399 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	109	94.9	1.15×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33	$365 365 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	88	94.9	0.93×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 25	$325 325 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	129	126.6	1.02×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$316 316 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	115	126.6	0.91×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 25	$311 311 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	147	126.6	1.16×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$303 303 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	96	126.6	0.76×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 25	$302 302 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	138	126.6	1.09×
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$286 286 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	113	126.6	0.89×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 25	$273 273 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	122	126.6	0.96×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$261 261 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	141	158.2	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$256 256 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	151	158.2	0.95×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 17	$247 247 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	197	183.5	1.07×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 20	$204 204 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	188	158.2	1.19×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$182 182 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	113	126.6	0.89×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$175 175 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	120	126.6	0.95×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 25	$139 139 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	129	126.6	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 25	$136 136 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	129	126.6	1.02×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$120 120 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	96	94.9	1.01×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$101 101 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	89	94.9	0.94×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertALLSTRAK$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,4096,409 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.06x1d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert=FLIP= EasyDrop$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,4096,409 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.06x7d

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contrabandgunkbob$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5,2665,266 HOTPIZZA_POINT13.20x16h

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contrabandEladar$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5,2665,266 HOTPIZZA_POINT13.20x4d

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contrabandAvet$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5,2665,266 HOTPIZZA_POINT13.20x6d

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contrabandEve^ | 王女$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5,2665,266 HOTPIZZA_POINT13.20x7d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · ClassifiedFenriramar$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,8932,893 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.25x1d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · ClassifiedBanana hellcase.org$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,8932,893 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.25x1d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classifiedobssdshmpnnfucku$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,8932,893 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.25x1d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · knifesНе TORONTOTOKYO$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,0842,084 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.22x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedKeif$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$175175 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x8m

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife⎛⎝Galorch⎠⎞$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$256256 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.64x19m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified☯•S么MUR么I•☯$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$175175 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x19m

★ Bayonet | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covertkliolin$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$273273 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.68x22m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedkliolin$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$175175 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x22m

★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertCOLBYLICIOÜS$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$286286 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x35m

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeFrida♥♥♥$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$303303 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.76x35m

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertHyde$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$204204 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.51x35m

★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeMaX ScouT$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$438438 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.10x35m

★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertCOLBYLICIOÜS$399399 HOTPIZZA_POINT$286286 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x35m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.10%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
4 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$399	87.10%	58
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$399	87.42%	58
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$399	87.47%	58

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 64.9%contraband 0.1%Classified 0.1%legendary 0.1%knifes 0.1%#ffd700 0.8%#EB4B4B 0.1%gold 0.9%Covert 0.5%rare 4.6%covert knife 18.0%#eb4b4b 2.0%epic 4.0%classified 4.0%best hit $6,409 (16.06x)