Ak Margherita

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hot Pizzas), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.60

1.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

104.13%

EV $1.67 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.98%

35K openings, odds method

Variance

31.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.90%±17.234,132 openings

7 days

100.77%±6.3629.7K openings

30 days

98.98%±5.8635K openings

since tracking started

98.98%±5.8635K openings

79.0%97.0%115.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4,132	96.90%±17.2	−0.8σ	odds
7d	29.7K	100.77%±6.36	−1.0σ	odds
30d	35K	98.98%±5.86	−1.6σ	odds
All	35K	98.98%±5.86	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$376 376 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	1	3.5	0.29×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$143 143 HOTPIZZA_POINT	8.6%	30	35.0	0.86×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 667	$125 125 HOTPIZZA_POINT	11.3%	51	52.5	0.97×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 667	$114 114 HOTPIZZA_POINT	10.2%	41	52.5	0.78×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$49.80 49.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.0%	56	70.1	0.80×
AK-47 \| Predator (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 333	$11.32 11.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	104	105.1	0.99×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 250	$10.44 10.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	117	140.1	0.83×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$4.48 4.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	105	140.1	0.75×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 112	$3.92 3.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	268	311.8	0.86×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$3.53 3.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	351	350.3	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 100	$2.18 2.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	405	350.3	1.16×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$2.00 2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	664	700.6	0.95×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.76 1.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	725	700.6	1.03×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Kami (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 50	$1.70 1.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	707	700.6	1.01×
Galil AR \| Kami (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$1.54 1.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	691	700.6	0.99×
Negev \| Dazzle (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$1.50 1.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	671	700.6	0.96×
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$1.45 1.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	681	700.6	0.97×
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$1.43 1.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	610	700.6	0.87×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 50	$1.42 1.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	687	700.6	0.98×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Slashed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$1.38 1.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	664	700.6	0.95×
SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rifles	1 in 33	$1.31 1.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	1,071	1050.9	1.02×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$1.10 1.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	1,721	1751.5	0.98×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$0.97 0.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	1,820	2101.9	0.87×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 14	$0.92 0.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	2,494	2452.2	1.02×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 13	$0.82 0.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	2,769	2802.5	0.99×
MP7 \| Amberline (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.78 0.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	2,446	2452.2	1.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 14	$0.77 0.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	2,469	2452.2	1.01×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 14	$0.70 0.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	2,461	2452.2	1.00×
P90 \| Randy Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.54 0.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	664	2452.2	0.27×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$0.48 0.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	1,818	2101.9	0.86×
Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.42 0.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	1,771	1751.5	1.01×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.36 0.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	1,580	1751.5	0.90×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Crypsis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 42	$0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	904	840.7	1.08×
XM1014 \| Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$0.26 0.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	664	700.6	0.95×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertFriggyFrog$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$376376 HOTPIZZA_POINT235.0x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertFNC Schliek$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$345345 HOTPIZZA_POINT215.3x2d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertdRELLARN$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$345345 HOTPIZZA_POINT215.3x2d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertlucas +=={:::::::::::::::::>$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$345345 HOTPIZZA_POINT215.3x2d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertMakka$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$345345 HOTPIZZA_POINT215.3x6d

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covertBlinx The Time Sweeper$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT89.31x2h

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covertpaleglot$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT89.31x21h

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covertGomes285$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT89.31x21h

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covertbabylon TradeBack.io$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT89.31x1d

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert(=PoZzItIf=)$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$143143 HOTPIZZA_POINT89.31x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecgaZiRovannayA voDka$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.260.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.16x2m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FFChaoticTTV$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.770.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.48x2m

XM1014 | Black Tie (Well-Worn)weapon · violetgaZiRovannayA voDka$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.451.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.91x3m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Kami (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FFgaZiRovannayA voDka$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.701.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.06x3m

MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)weapon · violetEmpathy$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.780.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.49x3m

XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecEmpathy$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.260.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.16x3m

MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)weapon · violetKitty delivery$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.780.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.49x4m

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedKitty delivery$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.700.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x4m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Slashed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil specBarnibals$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.381.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.86x4m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FFEMAN$1.601.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.770.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.48x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 104.13%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$1.60	104.13%	34
4 Nov, 08:11 UTC	$1.60	103.76%	34
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$1.60	103.77%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%red 0.3%restricted 10.1%industrial 0.3%#d32ce6 0.4%classified 0.4%#4b69ff 8.0%Rare 2.0%#4B69FF 2.0%mil spec 11.0%violet 21.0%blue 2.0%Rifles 3.0%#8847ff 7.0%milspec 12.4%#8847FF 7.0%Restricted 7.0%Mythical 6.0%best hit $376 (235.0x)