Marble BBQ

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hot Pizzas), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.50

3.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

88.74%

EV $3.11 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.15%

23K openings, odds method

Variance

7.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.04%±10.162,851 openings

7 days

88.15%±3.9019.4K openings

30 days

87.15%±3.5823K openings

since tracking started

87.15%±3.5823K openings

78.0%89.0%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,851	89.04%±10.2	+0.1σ	odds
7d	19.4K	88.15%±3.90	−0.4σ	odds
30d	23K	87.15%±3.58	−1.0σ	odds
All	23K	87.15%±3.58	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$786 786 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	3	2.3	1.30×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 5,000	$334 334 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	3	4.6	0.65×
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 3,333	$145 145 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	2	6.9	0.29×
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$29.80 29.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	24	23.1	1.04×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 400	$29.06 29.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	50	57.7	0.87×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 167	$11.98 11.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	112	138.4	0.81×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$9.59 9.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	130	161.5	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 143	$9.04 9.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	167	161.5	1.03×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 111	$6.15 6.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	174	207.7	0.84×
USP-S \| Stainless (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$5.62 5.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	460	461.5	1.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 50	$4.91 4.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	476	461.5	1.03×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Stinger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$4.40 4.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	480	461.5	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$3.91 3.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	711	692.2	1.03×
Souvenir USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 25	$3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	789	923.0	0.85×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$3.77 3.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.9%	907	923.0	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$3.19 3.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	133	923.0	0.14×
SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$2.96 2.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	880	923.0	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 20	$2.86 2.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	1,137	1153.7	0.99×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Randy Rush (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$2.63 2.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	1,217	1153.7	1.05×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$2.62 2.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	1,143	1153.7	0.99×
Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$2.54 2.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	1,085	1153.7	0.94×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	1,396	1384.5	1.01×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 15	$2.48 2.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.3%	1,578	1543.7	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$2.36 2.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	1,025	1153.7	0.89×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$2.24 2.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	1,160	1153.7	1.01×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$2.20 2.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	933	923.0	1.01×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$2.12 2.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	930	923.0	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$1.98 1.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	893	923.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 25	$1.64 1.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	926	923.0	1.00×
PP-Bizon \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 33	$1.58 1.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	685	692.2	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$1.54 1.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	101	692.2	0.15×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Torn (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$1.45 1.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	727	692.2	1.05×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$1.42 1.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	465	461.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$1.32 1.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	475	461.5	1.03×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertGrim$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$786786 HOTPIZZA_POINT224.6x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertSoftPressure$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$786786 HOTPIZZA_POINT224.6x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertBeebus$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$786786 HOTPIZZA_POINT224.6x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeDrDiddleDad$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$334334 HOTPIZZA_POINT95.53x1h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife♥RGN♥$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$334334 HOTPIZZA_POINT95.53x21h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeCalle$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$334334 HOTPIZZA_POINT95.53x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · ClassifiedEMAN$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.913.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.12x3m

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical✌(ツ)ว🌟$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.622.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.75x5m

Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Well-Worn)weapon · violetBrumos #24 ◢◤$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.049.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.58x5m

Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Field-Tested)weapon · violetDOUBLE FLESH//$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.541.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x8m

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalDOUBLE FLESH//$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.622.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.75x8m

Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff.HoT Smety$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.981.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.57x10m

MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Gradeqcarb$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.862.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.82x10m

AWP | Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetBRATAN$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.773.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.08x10m

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classifiedqcarb$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.913.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.12x11m

USP-S | Stainless (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffBRATAN$3.503.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.625.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.61x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.74%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$3.50	88.74%	34
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$3.50	88.99%	34
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$3.50	88.79%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%covert knife 0.1%restricted 10.8%milspec 3.3%red 0.6%violet 16.7%pink 0.9%#4b69ff 12.0%#d32ce6 2.0%Mythical 11.0%Classified 3.0%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%mil spec 4.0%Consumer Grade 8.0%#8847ff 11.0%uncommon 6.7%Mil Spec 4.0%Rare 2.0%best hit $786 (224.6x)