Marble shrums

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hot Pizzas), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$8.99

8.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

100.04%

EV $8.99 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d

102.13%

15.7K openings, odds method

Variance

14.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

121.55%±17.371,805 openings

7 days

103.80%±6.6413.1K openings

30 days

102.13%±6.0715.7K openings

since tracking started

102.13%±6.0715.7K openings

95.5%117.5%139.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,805	121.55%±17.4	+2.4σ	odds
7d	13.1K	103.80%±6.64	+0.9σ	odds
30d	15.7K	102.13%±6.07	+0.5σ	odds
All	15.7K	102.13%±6.07	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,080 1,080 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	4	1.6	2.54×
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 2,500	$837 837 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	10	6.3	1.59×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 667	$552 552 HOTPIZZA_POINT	9.2%	18	23.6	0.76×
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$470 470 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	16	15.8	1.02×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 333	$122 122 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	46	47.3	0.97×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 333	$111 111 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	44	47.3	0.93×
Souvenir FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary	1 in 200	$51.92 51.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	76	78.8	0.96×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 167	$36.31 36.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	111	94.5	1.17×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 143	$28.78 28.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	110	110.3	1.00×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 143	$16.25 16.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	98	110.3	0.89×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 111	$15.16 15.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	143	141.8	1.01×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 111	$13.88 13.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	142	141.8	1.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$12.97 12.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	322	315.1	1.02×
MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$11.15 11.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	602	630.1	0.96×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$10.08 10.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	632	630.1	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$9.65 9.65 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	598	630.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$8.24 8.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	615	630.1	0.98×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 17	$7.64 7.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.1%	965	945.2	1.02×
FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 15	$6.60 6.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	1,127	1071.2	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 13	$5.98 5.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.3%	1,228	1260.2	0.97×
Galil AR \| Shattered (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$5.39 5.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	1,245	1260.2	0.99×
Sawed-Off \| Mosaico (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 13	$4.85 4.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	1,255	1260.2	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 13	$4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	1,281	1260.2	1.02×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$4.42 4.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	805	787.6	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$4.08 4.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	613	630.1	0.97×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$3.84 3.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	620	630.1	0.98×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$3.66 3.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	633	630.1	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$3.49 3.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	655	630.1	1.04×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$3.37 3.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	646	630.1	1.03×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$2.38 2.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	452	472.6	0.96×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 50	$2.03 2.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	312	315.1	0.99×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$1.26 1.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	329	315.1	1.04×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertDaddy$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0801,080 HOTPIZZA_POINT120.1x5h

★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertGavinranius$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0801,080 HOTPIZZA_POINT120.1x22h

★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · coverthooligynn$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0801,080 HOTPIZZA_POINT120.1x3d

★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertBerk$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0801,080 HOTPIZZA_POINT120.1x6d

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicm3rCy ツ$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$837837 HOTPIZZA_POINT93.13x2d

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicAppleJack$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$837837 HOTPIZZA_POINT93.13x3d

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicCapt. Chloroform$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$837837 HOTPIZZA_POINT93.13x3d

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicAllaNaroK$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$837837 HOTPIZZA_POINT93.13x3d

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicRexstaff$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$837837 HOTPIZZA_POINT93.13x4d

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic✝ Evil ✝$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$837837 HOTPIZZA_POINT93.13x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendaryeternity :v$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.985.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.67x52s

MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted1tap$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$11.1511.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.24x1m

Sawed-Off | Mosaico (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial GradePuff Man$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.854.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.54x1m

Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violetdsf$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.659.65 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.07x4m

MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)weapon · violetdsf$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.663.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.41x4m

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryGeralt$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.985.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.67x7m

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryArTz >:)$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.985.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.67x8m

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified†ҜØНɆҸНѦЯ†$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.2516.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.81x10m

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink†ҜØНɆҸНѦЯ†$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.843.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.43x10m

Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkMenezesPHC$8.998.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.493.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.39x10m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 100.04%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$8.99	100.04%	32
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$8.99	100.94%	32

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%epic 0.0%covert knife 0.5%Covert 0.3%Legendary 14.5%classified 8.2%mil spec 0.7%#d32ee6 0.9%restricted 8.0%#8847ff 4.0%violet 13.0%#87c7ff 6.8%Rare 8.0%Industrial Grade 8.0%rare 8.0%#4b69ff 5.0%pink 12.0%blue 2.0%best hit $1,080 (120.1x)