Pepperoni Lore

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hot Pizzas), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.55

15.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

87.40%

EV $13.59 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.98%

11.8K openings, odds method

Variance

3.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.87%±9.781,499 openings

7 days

86.93%±3.809,922 openings

30 days

86.98%±3.4911.8K openings

since tracking started

86.98%±3.4911.8K openings

78.5%89.0%99.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,499	88.87%±9.78	+0.3σ	odds
7d	9,922	86.93%±3.80	−0.2σ	odds
30d	11.8K	86.98%±3.49	−0.2σ	odds
All	11.8K	86.98%±3.49	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,534 1,534 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	1	1.2	0.85×
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$688 688 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	2	2.4	0.85×
★ Karambit \| Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,500	$525 525 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	5	4.7	1.06×
★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,667	$381 381 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	10	7.1	1.41×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 588	$291 291 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	19	20.1	0.95×
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 333	$186 186 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	35	35.5	0.99×
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$150 150 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	44	47.3	0.93×
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 154	$87.67 87.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	77	76.8	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 105	$66.00 66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	114	112.3	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$36.16 36.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	109	118.2	0.92×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 100	$25.68 25.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	109	118.2	0.92×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 100	$22.68 22.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	116	118.2	0.98×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$21.11 21.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	104	118.2	0.88×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$20.07 20.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	120	118.2	1.02×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$19.02 19.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	127	118.2	1.07×
Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 100	$18.38 18.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	106	118.2	0.90×
Souvenir USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 53	$17.69 17.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	215	224.6	0.96×
Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 40	$16.84 16.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	310	295.5	1.05×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 33	$16.51 16.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	381	354.6	1.07×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 25	$15.31 15.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	474	472.8	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Hades (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$14.70 14.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	495	472.8	1.05×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$13.80 13.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	493	472.8	1.04×
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$12.22 12.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	423	472.8	0.89×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$11.51 11.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	484	472.8	1.02×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$10.79 10.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	487	472.8	1.03×
P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$9.98 9.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	455	472.8	0.96×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$8.40 8.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	590	590.9	1.00×
XM1014 \| Watchdog (Factory New)weapon · 1	1 in 17	$7.67 7.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	710	709.1	1.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$7.17 7.17 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	725	709.1	1.02×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 17	$6.85 6.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	661	709.1	0.93×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$6.77 6.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	187	709.1	0.26×
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$6.47 6.47 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	673	709.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Incinegator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 18	$5.84 5.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	651	650.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 22	$5.65 5.65 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	553	531.9	1.04×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 25	$5.64 5.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	496	472.8	1.05×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$5.24 5.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	358	354.6	1.01×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$4.07 4.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	104	354.6	0.29×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertMainOfRengar$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5341,534 HOTPIZZA_POINT98.63x2d

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertCigtar$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$688688 HOTPIZZA_POINT44.27x3d

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertKn1gh1$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$688688 HOTPIZZA_POINT44.27x4d

★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeJUST DO IT$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$525525 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.74x2d

★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeФизкульт Привет$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$525525 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.74x4d

★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeFleming$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$525525 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.74x5d

★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifefhenrique666$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$525525 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.74x7d

★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeAbbyyy 💚$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$525525 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.74x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedCedník <3$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.8013.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.89xnow

StatTrak™ MP7 | Impire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedKatos$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.645.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.36xnow

AK-47 | The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkJodak$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.655.65 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.36x52s

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedEv1l$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.776.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x52s

Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialaBoBocka$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$66.0066 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.24x52s

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedkaijin1go$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.776.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x52s

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedkaijin1go$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.845.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.38x52s

AWP | Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkRotham$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.074.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.26x3m

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedBeeg Yoshi$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.776.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x3m

AUG | Fleet Flock (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedCapt. Grandpow$15.5515.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.2212.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.79x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.40%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$15.55	87.40%	37
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$15.55	87.35%	37
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$15.55	87.47%	37

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 6.0%covert 1.1%covert knife 0.3%sunny 0.3%industrial 8.0%pink 9.5%Classified 7.0%classified 31.5%Restricted 8.4%#d32ee6 3.0%restricted 14.0%violet 5.0%uncommon 6.0%best hit $1,534 (98.63x)