Diablo Howl

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hot Pizzas), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$24.75

24.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

92.47%

EV $22.89 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.98%

9,389 openings, odds method

Variance

28.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.22%±32.181,041 openings

7 days

80.74%±11.747,839 openings

30 days

80.98%±10.739,389 openings

since tracking started

80.98%±10.739,389 openings

47.5%80.3%113.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 93.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (70.25% – 91.70%, 9,389 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,041	80.22%±32.2	−0.7σ	odds
7d	7,839	80.74%±11.7	−2.0σ	odds
30d	9,389	80.98%±10.7	−2.2σ	odds
All	9,389	80.98%±10.7	−2.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,402 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 5,000	$7,837 7,837 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.8%	0	1.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$2,336 2,336 HOTPIZZA_POINT	8.2%	3	7.5	0.40×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,000	$373 373 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	7	9.4	0.74×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 500	$225 225 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	14	18.8	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$214 214 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	20	23.5	0.85×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 333	$211 211 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	32	28.2	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 286	$177 177 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	39	32.9	1.19×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 250	$127 127 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	32	37.6	0.85×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 167	$116 116 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	52	56.4	0.92×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 143	$56.22 56.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	59	65.8	0.90×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$50.68 50.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	61	75.2	0.81×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 125	$40.16 40.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	65	75.2	0.86×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 111	$39.00 39 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	14	84.6	0.17×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 111	$36.31 36.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	88	84.6	1.04×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 100	$36.02 36.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	68	94.0	0.72×
P90 \| Baroque Red (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$34.40 34.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	96	94.0	1.02×
Souvenir UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$30.61 30.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	102	94.0	1.08×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 63	$24.68 24.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	132	150.4	0.88×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$23.28 23.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	202	188.0	1.07×
M4A4 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$20.87 20.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	354	376.1	0.94×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$19.75 19.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	590	564.1	1.05×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$18.65 18.65 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.5%	763	752.2	1.01×
Tec-9 \| Phoenix Chalk (Well-Worn)weapon	1 in 13	$18.11 18.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.3%	752	752.2	1.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 13	$15.04 15.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.3%	706	752.2	0.94×
M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$14.70 14.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.1%	766	752.2	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$12.68 12.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	682	658.1	1.04×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 14	$12.14 12.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	626	658.1	0.95×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$11.88 11.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	670	658.1	1.02×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$10.69 10.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	560	564.1	0.99×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$9.01 9.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	109	470.1	0.23×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$8.17 8.17 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	463	470.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$7.21 7.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	325	376.1	0.86×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 25	$6.71 6.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	392	376.1	1.04×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classifiedAsuna Yuuki$24.7524.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,3362,336 HOTPIZZA_POINT94.37x1d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classifiedRyuneko Meowtoi$24.7524.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,3362,336 HOTPIZZA_POINT94.37x1d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classifiedexy$24.7524.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,3362,336 HOTPIZZA_POINT94.37x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SG 553 | Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedBod$24.7524.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.178.17 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.33x5m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pinkDr Doctor.AM$24.7524.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$15.0415.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.61x6m

M4A4 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialboop$24.7524.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$14.7014.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.59x6m

UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pinkMobius$24.7524.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.6812.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.51x6m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted不拿控制死全家$24.7524.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.1412.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.49x8m

UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pinkLiz`[A].eZ$24.7524.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.6812.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.51x13m

UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pink☯•S么MUR么I•☯$24.7524.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.6812.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.51x13m

Souvenir M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · RareCosia$24.7524.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.019.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.36x13m

Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Well-Worn)weaponLiz`[A].eZ$24.7524.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$18.1118.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.73x13m

Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Well-Worn)weapon☯•S么MUR么I•☯$24.7524.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$18.1118.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.73x13m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.47%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$24.75	92.47%	33
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$24.75	93.11%	33
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$24.75	93.56%	33

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%classified 18.5%#eb4b4b 0.1%covert 0.9%red 1.3%Covert 0.4%mil spec 2.6%restricted 8.8%rare 0.8%Legendary 0.9%Restricted 8.6%industrial 18.0%other 8.0%pink 22.0%Rare 5.0%Industrial Grade 4.0%best hit $2,336 (94.37x)