Cheesy Dragon

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hot Pizzas), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$96.50

96.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

84.45%

EV $81.49 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.40%

5,985 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.45%±8.73748 openings

7 days

88.97%±3.385,003 openings

30 days

88.40%±3.105,985 openings

since tracking started

88.40%±3.105,985 openings

81.0%90.5%100.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 84.60% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.30% – 91.50%, 5,985 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	748	90.45%±8.73	+1.3σ	odds
7d	5,003	88.97%±3.38	+2.5σ	odds
30d	5,985	88.40%±3.10	+2.4σ	odds
All	5,985	88.40%±3.10	+2.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,001 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$6,409 6,409 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	3	0.6	—
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$2,685 2,685 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	3	1.2	2.50×
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$2,509 2,509 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	2	1.8	1.11×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$1,333 1,333 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	6	2.4	2.50×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,058 1,058 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	7	6.0	1.17×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 333	$680 680 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	17	18.0	0.94×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$531 531 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	38	30.0	1.27×
AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 182	$408 408 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	31	33.0	0.94×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 167	$351 351 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	39	36.0	1.08×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 167	$258 258 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	27	36.0	0.75×
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 167	$216 216 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	45	36.0	1.25×
Souvenir AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary	1 in 154	$205 205 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	44	39.0	1.13×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 143	$176 176 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	35	42.0	0.83×
AWP \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$165 165 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	57	60.0	0.95×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$161 161 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	62	60.0	1.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$153 153 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	94	120.0	0.78×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$142 142 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	161	180.0	0.89×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 33	$139 139 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.1%	173	180.0	0.96×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$109 109 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	169	180.0	0.94×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 33	$103 103 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	156	180.0	0.87×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$99.50 99.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.9%	248	240.0	1.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$92.58 92.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	233	240.0	0.97×
AWP \| CMYK (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 25	$86.72 86.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	228	240.0	0.95×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 25	$81.61 81.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	230	240.0	0.96×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 25	$71.33 71.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	231	240.0	0.96×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 20	$69.02 69.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	297	300.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 20	$68.96 68.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	325	300.0	1.08×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 20	$55.25 55.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	303	300.0	1.01×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 20	$47.08 47.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	324	300.0	1.08×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$42.15 42.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	317	300.0	1.06×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 19	$39.22 39.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	299	318.1	0.94×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$36.50 36.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	236	240.0	0.98×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$34.54 34.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	258	240.0	1.07×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$32.16 32.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	213	240.0	0.89×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$31.22 31.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	239	240.0	1.00×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$30.62 30.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	250	240.0	1.04×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$29.48 29.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	197	180.0	1.09×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$25.80 25.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	199	180.0	1.11×
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 33	$21.82 21.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	175	180.0	0.97×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertdXlm$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,4096,409 HOTPIZZA_POINT66.41x4d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertFAiz$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,4096,409 HOTPIZZA_POINT66.41x4d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertcn0x$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,4096,409 HOTPIZZA_POINT66.41x6d

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert✪ 2easy4me ;)$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,6852,685 HOTPIZZA_POINT27.82x2d

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covertFlip kitten :3$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,6852,685 HOTPIZZA_POINT27.82x5d

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covertPsy$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,6852,685 HOTPIZZA_POINT27.82x6d

AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertчел с завода$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5092,509 HOTPIZZA_POINT26.00x4h

AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert✪ Baoon$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5092,509 HOTPIZZA_POINT26.00x6d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covertBIG DICK$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3331,333 HOTPIZZA_POINT13.81x1d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covertAKloading$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3331,333 HOTPIZZA_POINT13.81x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertkaijin1go$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$36.5036.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.38x2m

StatTrak™ AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBigtymer85$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$109109 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.13x5m

AWP | Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedAnne Frank$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$34.5434.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.36x7m

StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert不拿控制死全家$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$36.5036.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.38x10m

AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialClaraaa-$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$30.6230.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.32x11m

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedClaraaa-$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$29.4829.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.31x11m

StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertdante$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$36.5036.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.38x11m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · reddante$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$103103 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.07x11m

AWP | CMYK (Battle-Scarred)weapon · redCuriousCoffee$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$86.7286.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.90x14m

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedДисКриминант$96.5096.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$92.5892.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.96x14m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.45%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$96.50	84.45%	39
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$96.50	84.64%	39
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$96.50	84.66%	39

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 27.2%classified 16.6%Legendary 1.3%Ancient 7.0%epic 3.0%red 16.0%#eb4b4b 4.0%rare 10.0%Classified 5.0%industrial 4.0%restricted 3.0%#d32ce6 3.0%best hit $6,409 (66.41x)