Monster "A"

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Monster Pizza), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.00

2 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

87.28%

EV $1.75 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.41%

33.2K openings, odds method

Variance

7.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.04%±8.693,820 openings

7 days

86.65%±3.2128K openings

30 days

87.41%±2.9533.2K openings

since tracking started

87.41%±2.9533.2K openings

78.5%88.0%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,820	88.04%±8.69	+0.2σ	odds
7d	28K	86.65%±3.21	−0.4σ	odds
30d	33.2K	87.41%±2.95	+0.1σ	odds
All	33.2K	87.41%±2.95	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal	1 in 1,000	$132 132 HOTPIZZA_POINT	7.6%	36	33.3	1.08×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 500	$53.60 53.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.1%	73	66.5	1.10×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 500	$52.61 52.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.0%	66	66.5	0.99×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 500	$27.13 27.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	50	66.5	0.75×
SSG 08 \| Detour (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 500	$14.89 14.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	56	66.5	0.84×
Souvenir AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 250	$6.44 6.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	126	133.0	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 200	$6.05 6.05 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	165	166.3	0.99×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$5.36 5.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	179	199.5	0.90×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 143	$4.64 4.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	199	232.8	0.85×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 71	$3.01 3.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	483	465.6	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$2.38 2.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	652	665.2	0.98×
Galil AR \| Control (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$2.26 2.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	597	665.2	0.90×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$2.06 2.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	991	997.7	0.99×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 29	$1.82 1.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	1,179	1164.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 25	$1.75 1.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	1,142	1330.3	0.86×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Control (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$1.62 1.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	1,354	1330.3	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 25	$1.58 1.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	1,369	1330.3	1.03×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 25	$1.46 1.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	1,298	1330.3	0.98×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 20	$1.43 1.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	1,681	1662.9	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$1.34 1.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	1,673	1662.9	1.01×
P90 \| Randy Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$1.25 1.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	1,447	1662.9	0.87×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$1.22 1.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	2,013	1995.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Randy Rush (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	2,000	2328.1	0.86×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$1.07 1.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	1,998	1995.5	1.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$1.04 1.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	1,669	1662.9	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Zeno (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$0.95 0.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	1,671	1662.9	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$0.80 0.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	1,625	1662.9	0.98×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$0.77 0.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	1,625	1662.9	0.98×
MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$0.66 0.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	1,362	1330.3	1.02×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$0.62 0.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	1,326	1330.3	1.00×
R8 Revolver \| Tango (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$0.53 0.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	995	997.7	1.00×
R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$0.36 0.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	659	665.2	0.99×
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.24 0.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	638	665.2	0.96×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalFizzknot$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$132132 HOTPIZZA_POINT66.09x14h

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalЧУХАН ЕБАНЫЙ$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$132132 HOTPIZZA_POINT66.09x16h

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalNyanCat K1's Cat$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$132132 HOTPIZZA_POINT66.09x19h

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalIEndY$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$132132 HOTPIZZA_POINT66.09x20h

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortalсперма на асфальте$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$132132 HOTPIZZA_POINT66.09x21h

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalДымок x Drochilla$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$132132 HOTPIZZA_POINT66.09x1d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalChigun|easy-drops.net$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$132132 HOTPIZZA_POINT66.09x2d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalMadzZzy$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$132132 HOTPIZZA_POINT66.09x2d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalТрэнси$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$132132 HOTPIZZA_POINT66.09x2d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalNoobel$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$132132 HOTPIZZA_POINT66.09x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specChickenRun$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.620.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.31x40s

Galil AR | Control (Factory New)weapon · MythicalChickenRun$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.262.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.13x40s

M4A4 | Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted✌(ツ)ว🌟$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.013.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.51x47s

R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical✌(ツ)ว🌟$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.360.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.18x47s

Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommonESSE RUSTCHANCE.COM$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.581.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.79x2m

★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · Covert02,9qf,92f9.-11$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$53.6053.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT26.80x2m

P90 | Randy Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetRыBoNьKa$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.251.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.63x2m

Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon02,9qf,92f9.-11$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.581.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.79x5m

P90 | Randy Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet02,9qf,92f9.-11$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.251.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.63x5m

USP-S | Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specDassas$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.620.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.31x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.28%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
4 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$2.00	87.28%	33
4 Nov, 08:11 UTC	$2.00	87.04%	33
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$2.00	87.37%	33

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedImmortal 0.1%Covert 0.2%#ffd700 0.2%#4B69FF 0.2%mil spec 4.2%Industrial Grade 0.4%Rare 10.5%restricted 11.0%pink 0.7%Mythical 9.0%milspec 12.0%Mil Spec Grade 3.5%Restricted 9.0%#8847ff 14.0%uncommon 4.0%violet 11.0%#4b69ff 10.0%best hit $132 (66.09x)