Octopiuzz
A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.00
3 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
115.91%
EV $3.48 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
113.38%
21.1K openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedCedric$3.003 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.421.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.47x
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkDen4ik$3.003 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.683.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.23x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeJeff the kiler$3.003 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.462.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.82x
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrial❤️️Mapache Horny❤$3.003 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.113.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.04x
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedit's Flooo- | 王女$3.003 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.003 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.00x
SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythicalit's Flooo- | 王女$3.003 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.031.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.34x
Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryAmpha$3.003 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.634.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.54x
Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedAmpha$3.003 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.152.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalAmpha$3.003 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.790.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.26x
Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)weapon · MythicalAmpha$3.003 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.561.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.52x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 115.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $3.00 | 115.91% | 34 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.1%#ffd700 0.1%red 0.3%pink 4.3%Covert 0.3%classified 5.8%Mil Spec 0.5%mil spec 0.5%restricted 16.7%Uncommon 0.7%industrial 5.8%Mil Spec Grade 7.0%Legendary 1.1%#8847ff 4.0%#4b69ff 5.0%Rare 10.5%Restricted 5.5%Mythical 23.0%Consumer Grade 6.0%violet 3.0%best hit —