Tigerzz

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$8.00

8 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

105.07%

EV $8.41 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.53%

12.5K openings, odds method

Variance

4.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.44%±10.871,562 openings

7 days

102.21%±4.1910.5K openings

30 days

101.53%±3.8412.5K openings

since tracking started

101.53%±3.8412.5K openings

82.0%94.5%107.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,562	93.44%±10.9	−2.1σ	odds
7d	10.5K	102.21%±4.19	−1.3σ	odds
30d	12.5K	101.53%±3.84	−1.8σ	odds
All	12.5K	101.53%±3.84	−1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$328 328 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	6	12.6	0.48×
★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$250 250 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	18	12.6	1.43×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 667	$231 231 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	13	18.9	0.69×
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	19	25.1	0.76×
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 333	$68.33 68.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	35	37.7	0.93×
★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 286	$57.68 57.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	41	44.0	0.93×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$45.17 45.17 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	50	50.3	0.99×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 250	$32.62 32.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	47	50.3	0.93×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$26.51 26.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	58	62.9	0.92×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 200	$24.32 24.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	68	62.9	1.08×
Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$21.61 21.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	80	75.4	1.06×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 143	$20.59 20.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	67	88.0	0.76×
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$18.22 18.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	102	100.6	1.01×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 111	$16.70 16.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	104	113.2	0.92×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$13.85 13.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	200	188.6	1.06×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$12.24 12.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	168	188.6	0.89×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 50	$11.54 11.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	259	251.5	1.03×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 40	$10.68 10.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	320	314.3	1.02×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 33	$9.89 9.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	394	377.2	1.04×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$8.94 8.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	424	440.1	0.96×
M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$8.27 8.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	509	502.9	1.01×
AUG \| Daedalus (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 20	$7.74 7.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	603	628.6	0.96×
FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$7.39 7.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	699	691.5	1.01×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$7.14 7.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.1%	774	754.4	1.03×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 14	$6.38 6.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.3%	858	880.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 17	$5.73 5.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	764	754.4	1.01×
R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$5.69 5.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	923	880.1	1.05×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$5.53 5.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	788	754.4	1.04×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$4.44 4.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	735	754.4	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 20	$4.00 4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	615	628.6	0.98×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$3.32 3.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	617	628.6	0.98×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$3.22 3.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	653	628.6	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 22	$2.99 2.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	562	565.8	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$2.56 2.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	472	502.9	0.94×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$2.12 2.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	528	502.9	1.05×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedAlex4 hellcase.org$8.008 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.735.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x2m

MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specAlex4 hellcase.org$8.008 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.562.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.32x2m

MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specChocolate 🦄🦄$8.008 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.562.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.32x3m

SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)weapon · restrictedAlex4 hellcase.org$8.008 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.535.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x3m

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedAlex4 hellcase.org$8.008 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.735.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x3m

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalFenghu 风花雪月$8.008 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.323.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.42x4m

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedFenghu 风花雪月$8.008 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.735.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x4m

SG 553 | Triarch (Factory New)weapon · restrictedFenghu 风花雪月$8.008 HOTPIZZA_POINT$7.147.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.89x5m

FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specArTz >:)$8.008 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.8513.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.73x5m

SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · restrictedA bad player$8.008 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.444.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.56x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 105.07%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$8.00	105.07%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 1.0%covert 0.5%Legendary 5.4%restricted 38.6%Classified 8.5%classified 8.5%mil spec 10.4%#d32ee6 5.5%consumer 5.0%Restricted 7.0%Mythical 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 4.5%best hit —