French fries

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Special Combo), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.99

3.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

89.69%

EV $3.58 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.22%

18.4K openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.38%±6.082,182 openings

7 days

87.43%±2.2915.4K openings

30 days

87.22%±2.0918.4K openings

since tracking started

87.22%±2.0918.4K openings

83.5%90.3%97.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.69% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.13% – 89.31%, 18,410 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,182	90.38%±6.08	+0.2σ	odds
7d	15.4K	87.43%±2.29	−1.9σ	odds
30d	18.4K	87.22%±2.09	−2.3σ	odds
All	18.4K	87.22%±2.09	−2.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$128 128 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	17	18.4	0.92×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 500	$49.23 49.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	34	36.9	0.92×
★ Paracord Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 333	$47.06 47.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	52	55.3	0.94×
P90 \| Baroque Red (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 250	$22.92 22.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	59	73.8	0.80×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$18.16 18.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	83	92.2	0.90×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$17.35 17.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	79	92.2	0.86×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 167	$14.84 14.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	123	110.7	1.11×
MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$13.38 13.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	118	129.1	0.91×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Curse (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · SMGs	1 in 167	$12.13 12.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	81	110.7	0.73×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$11.87 11.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	118	129.1	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 125	$9.10 9.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	149	147.6	1.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 125	$7.26 7.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	150	147.6	1.02×
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 100	$6.54 6.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	184	184.5	1.00×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$5.14 5.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	286	276.7	1.03×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$4.40 4.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	357	369.0	0.97×
R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$4.22 4.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	353	369.0	0.96×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$4.10 4.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	183	184.5	0.99×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$4.04 4.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	487	461.2	1.06×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$3.84 3.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	549	553.5	0.99×
AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$3.74 3.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	726	738.0	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$3.59 3.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	701	738.0	0.95×
Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$3.41 3.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	682	738.0	0.92×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 25	$3.34 3.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	744	738.0	1.01×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 20	$3.11 3.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	927	922.5	1.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 15	$2.96 2.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.6%	1,223	1254.6	0.97×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$2.84 2.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	904	922.5	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 20	$2.45 2.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	959	922.5	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$2.38 2.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	915	922.5	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$2.26 2.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	743	738.0	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$2.18 2.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	752	738.0	1.02×
SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$1.87 1.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	774	738.0	1.05×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$1.75 1.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	697	738.0	0.94×
AUG \| Storm (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 33	$1.55 1.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	554	553.5	1.00×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.54 1.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	790	738.0	1.07×
P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$1.46 1.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	603	553.5	1.09×
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3	1 in 33	$1.25 1.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	569	553.5	1.03×
SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.06 1.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	563	553.5	1.02×
Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$0.96 0.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	600	553.5	1.08×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 33	$0.83 0.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	562	553.5	1.02×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffRemz$3.993.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.461.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.37x11s

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare✌(ツ)ว🌟$3.993.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.751.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x22s

Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3Jack#RustCases.comrustchance.com$3.993.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.251.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.31x22s

Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Field-Tested)weapon · blueASM$3.993.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.452.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.61x22s

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · RestrictedFOEHAMMER$3.993.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.962.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.74x22s

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedgaZiRovannayA voDka$3.993.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.842.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.71x2m

Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil SpecChaoticTTV$3.993.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.113.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.78x2m

UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkgaZiRovannayA voDka$3.993.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.044.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.01x2m

Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Field-Tested)weapon · blueChaoticTTV$3.993.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.452.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.61x2m

Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3ДYШИCТЫЙ ХYЙ МАКСA$3.993.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.251.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.31x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.69%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$3.99	89.69%	39

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 3.0%covert 0.1%Restricted 11.0%gold 0.3%mil spec 2.4%classified 2.5%Mythical 0.6%restricted 30.4%SMGs 0.6%violet 0.8%pink 8.3%#8847ff 7.0%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%Mil Spec 5.0%blue 12.0%#4b69ff 5.0%Rare 4.0%consumer 3.0%best hit —