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Shake

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Special Combo), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$5.99
5.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
85.76%
EV $5.14 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.38%
14.1K openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
88.54%±9.011,592 openings
7 days
87.85%±3.3311.7K openings
30 days
87.38%±3.0314.1K openings
since tracking started
87.38%±3.0314.1K openings
79.0%88.5%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,59288.54%±9.01+0.6σodds
7d11.7K87.85%±3.33+1.2σodds
30d14.1K87.38%±3.03+1.0σodds
All14.1K87.38%±3.03+1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 1,000$274 274 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.3%2214.11.56×
★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 1,000$161 161 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%1714.11.21×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 500$48.88 48.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%2328.20.82×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 250$37.81 37.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.9%5556.30.98×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 167$35.22 35.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.1%8384.50.98×
Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 167$23.82 23.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%7284.50.85×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 167$19.61 19.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%8484.50.99×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 143$17.36 17.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%8898.60.89×
MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 143$16.38 16.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%9198.60.92×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 100$11.45 11.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%131140.80.93×
Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100$10.46 10.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%130140.80.92×
MP9 | Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 100$9.23 9.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%136140.80.97×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 100$7.46 7.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%150140.81.07×
MP7 | Asterion (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 100$7.18 7.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%143140.81.02×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 33$6.68 6.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.9%448422.51.06×
MAG-7 | Justice (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 33$6.47 6.47 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%403422.50.95×
AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 33$6.28 6.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%387422.50.92×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 33$6.00 6 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.5%443422.51.05×
Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 33$5.65 5.65 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%408422.50.97×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 33$5.51 5.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.2%442422.51.05×
UMP-45 | Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 33$5.21 5.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%413422.50.98×
P250 | Epicenter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 33$4.67 4.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.7%398422.50.94×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Balance (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 33$4.62 4.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.7%411422.50.97×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 33$4.49 4.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%434422.51.03×
Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 33$4.33 4.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%391422.50.93×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 25$3.88 3.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%586563.31.04×
StatTrak™ AUG | Stymphalian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 25$3.70 3.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.9%595563.31.06×
AWP | Black Nile (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 25$3.46 3.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.7%547563.30.97×
Tec-9 | Isaac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 25$3.08 3.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%542563.30.96×
MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 20$3.01 3.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.9%706704.11.00×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 25$2.86 2.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%572563.31.02×
MP7 | Sunbaked (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 25$2.54 2.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%524563.30.93×
Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 25$2.46 2.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%554563.30.98×
R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 25$2.44 2.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%586563.31.04×
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 25$2.32 2.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%598563.31.06×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 33$2.27 2.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%408422.50.97×
M249 | Downtown (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 33$1.87 1.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%433422.51.02×
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 33$1.52 1.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%428422.51.01×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 33$1.40 1.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%463422.51.10×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 33$1.35 1.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%435422.51.03×
SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 50$0.89 0.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.3%303281.71.08×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedCUTE BEAR <3$5.995.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.521.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.25x
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedCUTE BEAR <3$5.995.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.521.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.25x
MP7 | Sunbaked (Factory New)weapon · CommonREmoVe$5.995.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.542.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.42x
Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Well-Worn)weapon · blueqcarb$5.995.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.462.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.41x
SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedBRATAN$5.995.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.890.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.15x
Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendaryqcarb$5.995.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.686.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.12x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Balance (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeBRATAN$5.995.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.624.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.77x
Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryExoticBetaT$5.995.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.686.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.12x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalLastfear$5.995.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.351.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.23x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffbleach⁶⁵$5.995.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.272.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.38x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.76%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$5.9985.76%41
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.1%covert 0.1%classified 10.1%Mythical 6.4%#d32ee6 0.6%restricted 12.7%Classified 1.0%consumer 1.0%Legendary 10.0%pink 3.0%Mil Spec Grade 3.0%milspec 3.0%violet 9.0%Restricted 8.0%blue 8.0%mil spec 4.0%#8847ff 12.0%Common 4.0%Rare 4.0%best hit —