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Donut

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Special Combo), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$7.99
7.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
86.90%
EV $6.94 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.63%
12.6K openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
84.94%±11.421,483 openings
7 days
83.86%±4.2710.6K openings
30 days
85.63%±3.9212.6K openings
since tracking started
85.63%±3.9212.6K openings
73.0%85.0%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,48384.94%±11.4−0.3σodds
7d10.6K83.86%±4.27−1.4σodds
30d12.6K85.63%±3.92−0.6σodds
All12.6K85.63%±3.92−0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 1,000$373 373 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.4%1612.61.27×
★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 1,000$244 244 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.5%912.60.72×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 500$208 208 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.0%2125.20.83×
★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 500$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.6%2725.21.07×
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 333$41.62 41.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%3237.70.85×
Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 333$37.39 37.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%3737.70.98×
Souvenir MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary1 in 250$28.14 28.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%4950.30.97×
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 250$24.83 24.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%5850.31.15×
P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 167$20.53 20.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%6475.50.85×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce61 in 143$18.00 18 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%8588.10.97×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 143$17.90 17.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%7588.10.85×
MP7 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 100$16.86 16.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%108125.80.86×
Glock-18 | Reactor (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 100$15.11 15.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%111125.80.88×
StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 100$13.84 13.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%114125.80.91×
P90 | Attack Vector (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 100$11.40 11.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%114125.80.91×
AWP | POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 100$10.07 10.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%115125.80.91×
FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 100$9.95 9.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%137125.81.09×
MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100$8.66 8.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%112125.80.89×
Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 50$8.46 8.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%266251.61.06×
StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 33$8.09 8.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.5%385377.41.02×
P90 | Attack Vector (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 33$7.16 7.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%370377.40.98×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 33$6.43 6.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%397377.41.05×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 33$5.94 5.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%401377.41.06×
AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 33$5.45 5.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%380377.41.01×
USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 25$5.38 5.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%522503.21.04×
AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 20$5.24 5.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%626629.01.00×
Souvenir USP-S | Check Engine (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon1 in 17$5.18 5.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.5%741754.80.98×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 17$4.84 4.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.2%710754.80.94×
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 14$4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.7%885880.61.00×
MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 17$4.40 4.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%724754.80.96×
SSG 08 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 20$4.39 4.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.2%667629.01.06×
G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 25$4.37 4.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%510503.21.01×
USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 25$4.13 4.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%511503.21.02×
FAMAS | Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 33$4.06 4.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%403377.41.07×
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 33$2.99 2.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%387377.41.03×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon1 in 33$2.60 2.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%378377.41.00×
MP7 | Neon Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 33$2.42 2.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%388377.41.03×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 33$2.03 2.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%389377.41.03×
P2000 | Obsidian (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 33$2.00 2 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%401377.41.06×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 33$1.72 1.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%349377.40.92×
P90 | Off World (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$1.56 1.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%241251.60.96×
M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Minimal Wear)weapon · light blue1 in 50$1.02 1.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.3%265251.61.05×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
SSG 08 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrialShmichael$7.997.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.394.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil specShmichael$7.997.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.704.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.59x
MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedHaru'$7.997.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.404.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x
P2000 | Obsidian (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedCapt. Grandpow$7.997.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.25x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedFenghu 风花雪月$7.997.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.436.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.80x
AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedHaru'$7.997.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.455.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.68x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · uncommonCapt. Grandpow$7.997.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.602.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.33x
P2000 | Obsidian (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedFenghu 风花雪月$7.997.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.002 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.25x
USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specHaru'$7.997.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.385.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.67x
P90 | Attack Vector (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommonCapt. Grandpow$7.997.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$11.4011.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.43x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$7.9986.90%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%covert knife 0.3%classified 9.4%restricted 27.9%Legendary 0.4%#d32ce6 0.7%industrial 6.0%mil spec 14.0%uncommon 4.0%violet 4.0%blue 3.0%Mythical 7.0%#4b69ff 5.0%other 6.0%#8847ff 4.0%Restricted 6.0%light blue 2.0%best hit —