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BC.GAME ICE Fishing$2,12628.33xPrivé Lounge 1$2,0002.00xIce Fishing$2,12547.22xGates of Olympus 1000$84.9K2.12xIce Fishing$9,35925.97xIce Fishing$1,10931.57xIce Fishing$1,70228.33xIce Fishing$2,55025.50xPrivé Lounge 2$2,8002.15xLegacy of Dead$21.34212.0xJoker's Jewels$5,00510.00xUpgrader$1,0241.85xDeep Sea Duel$665221.5xLe Vampire$1,52848.33xAura of Jupiter$36.22108.5xLazy Vampire$2,5124.47xVampire Night Bell Link$1,180236.0xBetby Sportsbook$1,2661.93xChristmas Big Bass Bonanza$631112.0xPrivé Lounge 1$2,0002.00xCoinflip$133253.4xKorean Speed Blackjack 1$2,1043.39x5 Star Boost: Hold and Win$22.10110.5xLightning Roulette$3,2981.32x

Banana

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Special Combo), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$9.99
9.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
91.67%
EV $9.16 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.36%
11.3K openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
89.46%±7.471,226 openings
7 days
90.23%±2.709,376 openings
30 days
89.36%±2.4711.3K openings
since tracking started
89.36%±2.4711.3K openings
81.5%89.5%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,22689.46%±7.47−0.6σodds
7d9,37690.23%±2.70−1.0σodds
30d11.3K89.36%±2.47−1.8σodds
All11.3K89.36%±2.47−1.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd7001 in 1,000$308 308 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%1111.30.98×
★ Flip Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 1,000$172 172 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%911.30.80×
R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 333$90.13 90.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%3433.81.01×
★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 500$64.69 64.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%2222.50.98×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 333$51.41 51.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%2933.80.86×
★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 333$49.42 49.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%2633.80.77×
StatTrak™ P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 250$34.43 34.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%4845.11.06×
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 111$30.67 30.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%84101.50.83×
MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 50$27.54 27.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.0%201225.50.89×
MP7 | Asterion (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 250$22.37 22.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%3545.10.78×
P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 100$20.27 20.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%106112.70.94×
Souvenir AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 100$15.83 15.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%122112.71.08×
StatTrak™ AUG | Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 100$14.30 14.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%122112.71.08×
Galil AR | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 50$13.34 13.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.9%218225.50.97×
StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 50$12.96 12.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%238225.51.06×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 33$11.69 11.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%304338.20.90×
AK-47 | Predator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 33$10.98 10.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.6%339338.21.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 33$10.33 10.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%326338.20.96×
G3SG1 | Orange Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · #B0C3D91 in 33$9.56 9.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%311338.20.92×
StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33$8.88 8.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.9%293338.20.87×
SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 33$7.79 7.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%360338.21.06×
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec1 in 33$7.72 7.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%346338.21.02×
MAC-10 | Last Dive (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 33$7.52 7.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%341338.21.01×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Cirrus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 33$7.42 7.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%346338.21.02×
MP7 | Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 33$7.34 7.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%340338.21.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink1 in 33$7.15 7.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%359338.21.06×
P250 | Facets (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 25$6.88 6.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%445451.00.99×
Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 25$6.80 6.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%444451.00.98×
MAG-7 | Justice (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 25$6.42 6.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%468451.01.04×
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 25$6.41 6.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%462451.01.02×
SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 25$6.34 6.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%432451.00.96×
AK-47 | Crossfade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 25$6.31 6.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%451451.01.00×
P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 33$6.18 6.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%337338.21.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Silent Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare1 in 33$6.13 6.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%332338.20.98×
Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 33$5.66 5.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%353338.21.04×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 50$5.53 5.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%228225.51.01×
UMP-45 | Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 50$5.30 5.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%238225.51.06×
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 50$5.15 5.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%230225.51.02×
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 50$4.91 4.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%221225.50.98×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet1 in 50$4.42 4.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%223225.50.99×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 50$4.10 4.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%234225.51.04×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 50$3.76 3.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%235225.51.04×
PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$3.43 3.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%255225.51.13×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 50$3.23 3.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%239225.51.06×
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 50$2.77 2.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%243225.51.08×
MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$2.16 2.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%235225.51.04×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedCheri Lady$9.999.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.772.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.28x
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkнатура$9.999.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.416.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.64x
AK-47 | Crossfade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffbaresch$9.999.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.316.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.63x
MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)weapon · classifiedCheri Lady$9.999.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$27.5427.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.76x
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedнатура$9.999.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.772.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.28x
SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedbaresch$9.999.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$7.797.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.78x
Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffCheri Lady$9.999.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.665.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.57x
Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetнатура$9.999.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.806.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.68x
Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffbaresch$9.999.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.665.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.57x
Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffIgnisa$9.999.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.665.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.57x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.67%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$9.9991.67%46
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.1%covert 1.2%restricted 10.4%industrial 7.9%classified 19.0%consumer 0.4%Legendary 1.0%Mil Spec Grade 3.0%Classified 3.0%#B0C3D9 3.0%Mil Spec 3.0%mil spec 7.0%uncommon 3.0%pink 10.0%violet 6.0%#8847ff 7.0%#4b69ff 4.0%Rare 3.0%#d32ee6 2.0%Mythical 2.0%Restricted 2.0%milspec 2.0%best hit —