Hot Dog
A case on Hotpizza.gg (Special Combo), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.99
11.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
86.63%
EV $10.39 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.94%
10.5K openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 86.63% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.98% – 85.90%, 10,484 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AUG | Navy Murano (Factory New)weapon · #777777BriBeans$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2117.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.44x
Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedake eilish$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$35.5835.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.97x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedзабивной кириешеk$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.755.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.48x
StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedake eilish$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.814.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.40x
MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)weapon · 3забивной кириешеk$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.164.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.35x
MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetake eilish$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.481.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.12x
Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradeзабивной кириешеk$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.953.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.33x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Detour (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec GradeКРИП ЕБАНЕЙШИЙ$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.046.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.50x
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBlueFour$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.646.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedSooto$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.646.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.63%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $11.99 | 86.63% | 45 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 4.0%covert knife 0.3%epic 0.2%Covert 0.3%covert 0.7%#8847ff 4.4%restricted 26.4%red 0.4%classified 18.9%Classified 3.5%Mythical 4.9%mil spec 1.0%Legendary 1.0%#777777 1.0%pink 11.0%other 4.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%Industrial Grade 7.0%violet 6.0%best hit —