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Blackjack 30$3,3221.11xSweet Bonanza 1000$3,85919.28xPrivé Lounge 1$4,0002.00xRed Door Roulette$2,4571.23xBaccarat$3,4352.00xDuck Hunters Happy Hour$96.92121.2xDrac's Stacks$2,52817.99xWanted Dead or a Wild$6,6698.32xScarab Spin$3,12019.50xWaylanders Forge$3,5251,320xSports Betting$78K1.95xSweet Bonanza 1000$4,6586.96xBetter Barn House Bonanza$1,16554.85xShadow Strike$203454.3xPrive Lounge Blackjack 5$5,0002.50xMONOPOLY Big Baller$1,8029.00xFruit Party$6,5711.09xHiLo$1,2784.90xRoo Bonanza$51.2K2.77xCrash$1,3962.15xSweet Bonanza 2500$1,5397.28xHot to Burn$1,00010.00xZe Zeus$555103.6xCrash$4,5424.54x

Burger

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Special Combo), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$14.99
14.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
87.75%
EV $13.15 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.46%
9,271 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
79.58%±8.691,021 openings
7 days
84.71%±3.167,714 openings
30 days
85.46%±2.889,271 openings
since tracking started
85.46%±2.889,271 openings
70.0%79.5%89.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,02179.58%±8.69−1.8σodds
7d7,71484.71%±3.16−1.9σodds
30d9,27185.46%±2.88−1.6σodds
All9,27185.46%±2.88−1.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,294 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 1,000$319 319 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%69.30.65×
★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd7001 in 1,000$273 273 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%39.30.32×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 667$203 203 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%913.90.65×
★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 500$197 197 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%1918.61.02×
Souvenir MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary1 in 333$155 155 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.5%2627.90.93×
★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 250$76.91 76.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%5137.21.37×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Full Throttle (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 200$63.70 63.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%4346.50.93×
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 200$55.93 55.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%4346.50.93×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 167$55.91 55.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%5555.80.99×
Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue1 in 167$48.20 48.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%6055.81.08×
★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 143$45.41 45.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%6565.11.00×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 143$41.75 41.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%7365.11.12×
SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 125$35.88 35.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%6874.40.91×
FAMAS | Afterimage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 100$24.54 24.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%9492.91.01×
SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 67$22.82 22.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%137139.40.98×
StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 50$20.70 20.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%197185.91.06×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 50$17.77 17.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.7%150185.90.81×
P250 | Red Rock (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 50$16.80 16.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%186185.91.00×
CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50$15.49 15.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%153185.90.82×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33$14.30 14.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%295278.81.06×
Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 33$13.68 13.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%304278.81.09×
AUG | Carved Jade (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 25$13.02 13.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.0%397371.81.07×
M4A4 | Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 25$12.54 12.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%384371.81.03×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 25$12.04 12.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%361371.80.97×
M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 25$11.90 11.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.6%350371.80.94×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 25$10.97 10.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%388371.81.04×
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 25$9.35 9.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%351371.80.94×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 20$8.89 8.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%444464.70.96×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink1 in 17$8.75 8.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.9%567543.71.04×
Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 25$8.63 8.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%392371.81.05×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 25$7.98 7.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%364371.80.98×
StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 25$7.19 7.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%358371.80.96×
P90 | Attack Vector (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 25$6.42 6.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%401371.81.08×
StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 25$5.84 5.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%403371.81.08×
AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 25$5.29 5.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%348371.80.94×
AK-47 | Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 25$5.06 5.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%381371.81.02×
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 25$4.81 4.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%341371.80.92×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 25$4.07 4.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%379371.81.02×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 50$3.54 3.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%175185.90.94×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 33$2.05 2.05 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%284278.81.02×
MP5-SD | Agent (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.82 1.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.3%189185.91.02×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M4A4 | Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommonhakdog$14.9914.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.5412.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.84x
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedSammy39$14.9914.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.898.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.59x
AK-47 | Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkCuriousCoffee$14.9914.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.065.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.34x
AK-47 | Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkMobius$14.9914.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.065.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.34x
Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedAkameuh$14.9914.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.638.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.58x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specI-stekan-I$14.9914.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.9710.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.73x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pinkNiah$14.9914.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.758.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.58x
StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedHaru'$14.9914.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$7.197.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.48x
P90 | Attack Vector (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommonLiz`[A].eZ$14.9914.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.426.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.43x
SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec☯•S么MUR么I•☯$14.9914.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$22.8222.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.52x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.75%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$14.9987.75%41
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.1%#ffd700 0.1%covert 2.3%Legendary 4.3%gold 0.4%red 0.5%classified 24.4%blue 0.6%pink 10.9%mil spec 9.5%restricted 16.0%uncommon 8.0%Mythical 15.0%violet 4.0%milspec 4.0%best hit —