Ice Zombie

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$20.00

20 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

97.99%

EV $19.60 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.44%

9,271 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.62%±7.071,055 openings

7 days

97.14%±2.617,760 openings

30 days

97.44%±2.399,271 openings

since tracking started

97.44%±2.399,271 openings

85.0%92.8%100.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,055	92.62%±7.07	−1.5σ	odds
7d	7,760	97.14%±2.61	−0.6σ	odds
30d	9,271	97.44%±2.39	−0.5σ	odds
All	9,271	97.44%±2.39	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,286 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$459 459 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	5	9.3	0.54×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · Knives · Phase 4	1 in 500	$309 309 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	26	18.6	1.40×
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$142 142 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	20	27.9	0.72×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$93.60 93.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	36	37.1	0.97×
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 250	$84.86 84.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	42	37.1	1.13×
★ Paracord Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$71.00 71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	49	46.4	1.06×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 167	$69.80 69.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	53	55.7	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$57.13 57.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	53	65.0	0.82×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 125	$56.68 56.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	75	74.3	1.01×
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 111	$48.02 48.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	72	83.6	0.86×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$45.32 45.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	102	92.9	1.10×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 100	$32.02 32.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	88	92.9	0.95×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$28.50 28.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	78	92.9	0.84×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 100	$25.98 25.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	97	92.9	1.04×
Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$24.34 24.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	161	139.3	1.16×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$23.77 23.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	164	139.3	1.18×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 67	$22.68 22.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	111	139.3	0.80×
Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$21.71 21.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	165	185.7	0.89×
Souvenir USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$20.99 20.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	187	185.7	1.01×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$20.71 20.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	191	185.7	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$20.44 20.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	198	185.7	1.07×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$20.35 20.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	270	278.6	0.97×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$20.02 20.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	379	371.4	1.02×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Detour (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 25	$19.57 19.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	387	371.4	1.04×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon	1 in 25	$19.16 19.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	399	371.4	1.07×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$18.83 18.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	460	464.3	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$18.14 18.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	467	464.3	1.01×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 20	$17.39 17.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	469	464.3	1.01×
Souvenir P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$16.98 16.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	527	557.2	0.95×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$14.60 14.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	474	464.3	1.02×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shallow Grave (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 20	$13.55 13.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	426	464.3	0.92×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$12.34 12.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	472	464.3	1.02×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$12.16 12.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	353	371.4	0.95×
M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$11.29 11.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	375	371.4	1.01×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$10.34 10.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	384	371.4	1.03×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 33	$9.78 9.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	265	278.6	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$8.38 8.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	298	278.6	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$7.67 7.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	284	278.6	1.02×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 38	$7.12 7.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	238	241.4	0.99×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$6.30 6.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	199	185.7	1.07×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$5.20 5.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	183	185.7	0.99×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classifieddgem21$20.0020 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.3412.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.62x23s

Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifieddgem21$20.0020 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.4420.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.02x23s

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifieddgem21$20.0020 HOTPIZZA_POINT$14.6014.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.73x23s

Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil specdgem21$20.0020 HOTPIZZA_POINT$24.3424.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.22x23s

StatTrak™ P90 | Shallow Grave (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classifiedｂｒｏｋｅｎ$20.0020 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.5513.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.68x29s

Souvenir P250 | Digital Architect (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedｂｒｏｋｅｎ$20.0020 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.9816.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.85x29s

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weaponДисКриминант$20.0020 HOTPIZZA_POINT$19.1619.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.96x2m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBlackHole [ZCM]$20.0020 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.0220.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.00x2m

MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkBELL [Mosnatic]$20.0020 HOTPIZZA_POINT$7.127.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.36x2m

Tec-9 | Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedNiah$20.0020 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.7120.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.04x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 97.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$20.00	97.99%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 1.4%Knives 0.2%covert 3.9%gold 0.4%red 1.0%restricted 15.5%Classified 6.0%mil spec 1.5%pink 7.1%#4b69ff 2.0%Mythical 2.0%classified 39.0%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%other 4.0%Industrial Grade 5.0%industrial 4.0%uncommon 3.0%best hit —