Doggo

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$25.00

25 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

93.99%

EV $23.50 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.99%

8,055 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.00%±7.38881 openings

7 days

91.81%±2.706,566 openings

30 days

91.99%±2.448,055 openings

since tracking started

91.99%±2.448,055 openings

81.0%89.0%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	881	89.00%±7.38	−1.3σ	odds
7d	6,566	91.81%±2.70	−1.6σ	odds
30d	8,055	91.99%±2.44	−1.6σ	odds
All	8,055	91.99%±2.44	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,082 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1	1 in 1,000	$515 515 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	5	8.1	0.62×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,000	$324 324 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	7	8.1	0.87×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 500	$257 257 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	15	16.2	0.93×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 333	$187 187 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	16	24.2	0.66×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 250	$142 142 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	37	32.3	1.14×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 250	$118 118 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	31	32.3	0.96×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$114 114 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	34	40.4	0.84×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$78.73 78.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	30	40.4	0.74×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$73.18 73.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	42	40.4	1.04×
★ Paracord Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 167	$69.86 69.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	43	48.5	0.89×
★ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 143	$68.27 68.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	72	56.6	1.27×
★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 125	$47.51 47.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	73	64.7	1.13×
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$46.26 46.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	74	80.8	0.92×
P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$39.53 39.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	68	80.8	0.84×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$36.86 36.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	79	80.8	0.98×
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 111	$34.45 34.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	62	72.7	0.85×
Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$31.85 31.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	127	121.2	1.05×
USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 67	$30.86 30.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	130	121.2	1.07×
USP-S \| Business Class (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$28.90 28.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	156	161.6	0.97×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$27.23 27.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	201	202.0	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| The Bronze (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 40	$25.22 25.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	208	202.0	1.03×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$24.37 24.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	236	242.5	0.97×
P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$23.08 23.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	257	242.5	1.06×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 25	$22.88 22.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	309	323.3	0.96×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$22.22 22.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	326	323.3	1.01×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$21.41 21.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	310	323.3	0.96×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$20.76 20.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	315	323.3	0.97×
AWP \| The End (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$20.21 20.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	462	404.1	1.14×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$19.60 19.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	413	404.1	1.02×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$18.14 18.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	397	404.1	0.98×
MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	373	404.1	0.92×
Souvenir Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$15.97 15.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	392	363.7	1.08×
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 22	$15.42 15.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	384	363.7	1.06×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$14.87 14.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	327	323.3	1.01×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 25	$13.25 13.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	310	323.3	0.96×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$12.76 12.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	330	323.3	1.02×
FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$12.25 12.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	335	323.3	1.04×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$11.83 11.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	212	242.5	0.87×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$10.85 10.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	236	242.5	0.97×
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$9.14 9.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	256	242.5	1.06×
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$8.41 8.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	208	202.0	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 40	$7.40 7.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	184	202.0	0.91×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1Enixmy$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$515515 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.59x1d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1aragorn$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$515515 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.59x3d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1Airikr$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$515515 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.59x4d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1Dzain.$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$515515 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.59x6d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1Doc$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$515515 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.59x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAG-7 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · industrialBigBrudda$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.5017.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.70x1m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBigBrudda$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.7612.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.51x1m

AWP | The End (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkElefun$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.2120.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.81x3m

AWP | The End (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkI<3KEBAB$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.2120.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.81x3m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalElefun$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$14.8714.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.59x3m

AWP | The End (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkI<3KEBAB$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.2120.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.81x3m

P2000 | Woodsman (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedConga$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$22.2222.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.89x4m

StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedConga$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$24.3724.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.97x4m

Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedMalinkis$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$34.4534.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.38x4m

AWP | The End (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkCOLLAB$25.0025 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.2120.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.81x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$25.00	93.99%	42

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#EB4B4B 0.1%covert 2.7%covert knife 1.2%classified 28.4%Immortal 0.6%extraordinary 1.0%#8847ff 2.5%mil spec 11.0%restricted 11.5%light blue 2.5%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%pink 10.5%industrial 5.0%#4b69ff 4.5%Mythical 4.0%#d32ee6 4.0%violet 4.0%Classified 2.5%best hit $515 (20.59x)