Snowball

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$40.00

40 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

92.53%

EV $37.01 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.53%

7,442 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.80%±7.35866 openings

7 days

94.35%±2.746,226 openings

30 days

94.53%±2.517,442 openings

since tracking started

94.53%±2.517,442 openings

87.0%95.0%103.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	866	94.80%±7.35	+0.6σ	odds
7d	6,226	94.35%±2.74	+1.3σ	odds
30d	7,442	94.53%±2.51	+1.6σ	odds
All	7,442	94.53%±2.51	+1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,454 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 667	$664 664 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	12	11.2	1.07×
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$413 413 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	23	14.9	1.54×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 333	$309 309 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	22	22.4	0.98×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 286	$273 273 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	28	26.1	1.07×
★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 250	$228 228 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	41	29.8	1.38×
★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$153 153 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	30	37.3	0.80×
★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$135 135 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	45	44.7	1.01×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$124 124 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	40	44.7	0.89×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 167	$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	50	44.7	1.12×
★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 143	$119 119 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	56	52.2	1.07×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 125	$106 106 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	54	59.6	0.91×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 125	$80.51 80.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	58	59.6	0.97×
★ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$66.98 66.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	88	74.5	1.18×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 100	$57.72 57.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	69	74.5	0.93×
★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 100	$52.57 52.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	81	74.5	1.09×
★ Paracord Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 67	$51.13 51.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	103	111.8	0.92×
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$50.96 50.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	85	74.5	1.14×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 67	$50.46 50.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	106	111.8	0.95×
★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$44.32 44.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	124	149.1	0.83×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 50	$43.82 43.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	154	149.1	1.03×
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 40	$42.77 42.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	207	186.3	1.11×
Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$41.34 41.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	217	223.6	0.97×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$39.40 39.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	215	223.6	0.96×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$37.32 37.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	307	298.2	1.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$36.50 36.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	290	298.2	0.97×
XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 22	$35.16 35.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	343	335.4	1.02×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 20	$33.38 33.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	377	372.7	1.01×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 17	$30.66 30.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	437	447.2	0.98×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 18	$26.93 26.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	430	410.0	1.05×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 18	$25.42 25.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	425	410.0	1.04×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 20	$24.32 24.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	385	372.7	1.03×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$22.12 22.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	336	372.7	0.90×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$21.07 21.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	365	372.7	0.98×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$19.94 19.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	324	298.2	1.09×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$18.07 18.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	269	298.2	0.90×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$16.30 16.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	303	298.2	1.02×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 25	$15.72 15.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	290	298.2	0.97×
P90 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$10.57 10.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	221	223.6	0.99×
USP-S \| Para Green (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$9.22 9.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	211	223.6	0.94×
M4A4 \| Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$9.12 9.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	233	223.6	1.04×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert.H2Bit.$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$664664 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.61x5h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertA. Talisca$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$664664 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.61x18h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertElfidro$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$664664 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.61x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertKounch$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$664664 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.61x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertKLINTZ$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$664664 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.61x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertFydo$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$664664 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.61x4d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertBarre ツ$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$664664 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.61x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertLegoVar$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$664664 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.61x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert(mp5)$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$664664 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.61x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertHärra Rinnalihas$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$664664 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.61x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6AP$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$33.3833.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.83x6m

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pinkImStussy$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$22.1222.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x8m

★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeAntiRed$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$124124 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.09x8m

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertMeow$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$273273 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.81x10m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedMeow$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$30.6630.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.77x10m

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBMaximusBoss$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.3016.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.41x24m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedaBoBocka$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$30.6630.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.77x29m

★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covertaBoBocka$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$413413 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.33x29m

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · LegendaryaBoBocka$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$25.4225.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.64x29m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedGalatiano keyDrop.com$40.0040 HOTPIZZA_POINT$15.7215.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.39x32m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.53%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$40.00	92.53%	40

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 7.6%covert knife 5.2%gold 3.2%uncommon 1.0%Immortal 1.0%extraordinary 3.5%#ffd700 2.0%industrial 12.0%classified 24.5%Uncommon 4.5%#d32ee6 5.0%Restricted 10.0%Legendary 5.5%#d32ce6 5.0%pink 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%best hit $664 (16.61x)