Simon

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$60.00

60 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

91.60%

EV $54.96 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.02%

6,575 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.81%±7.73781 openings

7 days

90.87%±2.925,459 openings

30 days

91.02%±2.676,575 openings

since tracking started

91.02%±2.676,575 openings

80.5%88.8%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	781	88.81%±7.73	−0.7σ	odds
7d	5,459	90.87%±2.92	−0.5σ	odds
30d	6,575	91.02%±2.67	−0.4σ	odds
All	6,575	91.02%±2.67	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,582 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 500	$852 852 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	17	13.2	1.29×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$529 529 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	11	13.2	0.84×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 500	$483 483 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	10	13.2	0.76×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 333	$421 421 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	23	19.7	1.16×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 333	$412 412 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	20	19.7	1.01×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$353 353 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	26	26.3	0.99×
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$256 256 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	18	32.9	0.55×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 200	$207 207 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	32	32.9	0.97×
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 167	$152 152 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	40	39.5	1.01×
★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 143	$144 144 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	52	46.1	1.13×
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 125	$127 127 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	44	52.7	0.84×
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$106 106 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	74	65.8	1.12×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$105 105 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	76	65.8	1.15×
★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$100 100 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	51	65.8	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$98.52 98.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	64	65.8	0.97×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$98.17 98.17 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	69	65.8	1.05×
★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 100	$80.04 80.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	69	65.8	1.05×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 77	$79.99 79.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	84	85.6	0.98×
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$76.61 76.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	165	197.5	0.84×
★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 33	$74.78 74.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	218	197.5	1.10×
★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$70.32 70.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	205	197.5	1.04×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$69.01 69.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	197	197.5	1.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$68.44 68.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	195	197.5	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$65.92 65.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	175	197.5	0.89×
★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$61.62 61.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	191	197.5	0.97×
P2000 \| Scorpion (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$60.71 60.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	209	197.5	1.06×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$58.20 58.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	190	197.5	0.96×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$51.24 51.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	272	263.3	1.03×
MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$42.70 42.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	273	263.3	1.04×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 20	$37.20 37.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	335	329.1	1.02×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$32.36 32.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	349	329.1	1.06×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$28.55 28.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	314	329.1	0.95×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$26.89 26.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	371	394.9	0.94×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$25.45 25.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	410	394.9	1.04×
Nova \| Clear Polymer (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$23.76 23.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	340	329.1	1.03×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Antique (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 20	$20.69 20.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	339	329.1	1.03×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$20.64 20.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	303	329.1	0.92×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 33	$19.45 19.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	209	197.5	1.06×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$18.70 18.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	211	197.5	1.07×
SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 33	$16.52 16.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	178	197.5	0.90×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$14.28 14.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	153	131.6	1.16×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicasdadadasdasdsafafsaf$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$852852 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.21x42m

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicFrost.-$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$852852 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.21x1d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic.oB Agentoodles$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$852852 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.21x1d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicfreed∞m guy$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$852852 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.21x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicLOLYOU$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$852852 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.21x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicGonças$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$852852 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.21x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicHollsters$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$852852 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.21x3d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic500h mp5 beamer #Rustypot$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$852852 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.21x3d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicНЕ СОВЕРШАЙ ОШИБК$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$852852 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.21x3d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicМактрахер$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$852852 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.21x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Nova | Antique (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6L1M1T$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.6920.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.34x5m

★ Falchion Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeL1M1T$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$70.3270.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.17x5m

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeMpLegend$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$98.5298.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.64x17m

MP7 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec✪ Mathew D.<DARKY>☯$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$42.7042.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.71x21m

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Embargo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical✪ Mathew D.<DARKY>☯$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$32.3632.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.54x21m

★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertKRAKEN$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$483483 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.06x31m

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeKRAKEN$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$61.6261.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.03x31m

★ Survival Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · rarenewoekul$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$80.0480.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.33x33m

P2000 | Woodsman (Field-Tested)weapon · violetDinoNuggets69$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$26.8926.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.45x33m

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covertKonekThé$60.0060 HOTPIZZA_POINT$58.2058.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.97x33m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.60%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$60.00	91.60%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.2%covert knife 17.2%covert 16.2%sunny 0.3%rare 1.5%gold 3.6%restricted 4.0%mil spec 4.0%Ancient 5.0%Mythical 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%violet 6.0%classified 13.0%#d32ee6 5.0%Legendary 3.0%blue 3.0%consumer 3.0%best hit $852 (14.21x)