Chickenist

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$80.00

80 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

86.91%

EV $69.53 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.01%

5,829 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.44%±6.35667 openings

7 days

86.03%±2.374,782 openings

30 days

86.01%±2.155,829 openings

since tracking started

86.01%±2.155,829 openings

78.5%85.5%92.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	667	85.44%±6.35	−0.5σ	odds
7d	4,782	86.03%±2.37	−0.7σ	odds
30d	5,829	86.01%±2.15	−0.8σ	odds
All	5,829	86.01%±2.15	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,838 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$1,007 1,007 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	5	5.8	0.86×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$606 606 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	10	11.7	0.86×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 333	$526 526 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	19	17.5	1.08×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 250	$519 519 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	20	23.4	0.86×
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 200	$290 290 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	37	29.2	1.27×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$249 249 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	30	29.2	1.03×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 167	$224 224 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	37	35.0	1.06×
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 143	$183 183 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	37	40.9	0.91×
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 125	$159 159 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	39	46.7	0.84×
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 111	$137 137 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	54	52.5	1.03×
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	53	58.4	0.91×
★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 100	$123 123 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	58	58.4	0.99×
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	54	58.4	0.92×
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 91	$116 116 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	71	64.2	1.11×
★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 91	$109 109 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	68	64.2	1.06×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 91	$105 105 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	63	64.2	0.98×
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 77	$103 103 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	57	75.9	0.75×
★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 53	$95.29 95.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	95	110.9	0.86×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 40	$92.62 92.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	132	145.9	0.90×
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$89.90 89.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	169	175.1	0.96×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$84.53 84.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	164	175.1	0.94×
★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$83.04 83.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	167	175.1	0.95×
★ Classic Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 22	$80.92 80.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	283	262.7	1.08×
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 20	$79.52 79.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.7%	285	291.9	0.98×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 17	$77.08 77.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.7%	370	350.3	1.06×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 17	$64.43 64.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.6%	359	350.3	1.02×
★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 14	$55.06 55.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.5%	392	408.7	0.96×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 17	$49.51 49.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	363	350.3	1.04×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 18	$38.98 38.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	350	321.1	1.09×
P250 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$37.02 37.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	330	321.1	1.03×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$35.09 35.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	273	291.9	0.94×
USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$34.73 34.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	310	291.9	1.06×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 22	$32.50 32.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	256	262.7	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$27.30 27.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	250	233.5	1.07×
SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$23.68 23.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	175	175.1	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$22.86 22.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	182	175.1	1.04×
MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 50	$20.80 20.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	103	116.8	0.88×
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$17.69 17.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	118	116.8	1.01×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeFABIO__VIVAS$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0071,007 HOTPIZZA_POINT12.59x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifePipister$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0071,007 HOTPIZZA_POINT12.59x2d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife💋 Game⚠️TeC$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0071,007 HOTPIZZA_POINT12.59x3d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeben!$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0071,007 HOTPIZZA_POINT12.59x6d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeMute$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0071,007 HOTPIZZA_POINT12.59x6d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeDJ Kuroto$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$606606 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.57x14h

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeHammercock Merle$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$606606 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.57x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeE_WM$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$606606 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.57x2d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifemdc.1994$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$606606 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.57x2d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeGr3N$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$606606 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.57x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffPazoo$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.6917.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.22x3m

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeGandhi$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$77.0877.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.96x3m

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedЛеонид Автосервиc$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$27.3027.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.34x3m

★ Paracord Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700Леонид Автосервиc$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$55.0655.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x3m

★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifeAthen$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$80.9280.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.01x12m

★ Huntsman Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700lecccymydurrrr$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$64.4364.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.81x25m

★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertFoXeR$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$49.5149.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.62x25m

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedAmazing Yoda Master$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$27.3027.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.34x25m

SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffchupapi munyayo$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$23.6823.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.30x25m

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Factory New)weapon · #8847fflecccymydurrrr$80.0080 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.6917.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.22x25m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$80.00	86.91%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 18.9%gold 2.5%covert 28.4%#ffd700 13.9%Covert 1.0%Immortal 1.3%classified 14.5%industrial 8.0%Legendary 4.5%#4b69ff 3.0%blue 2.0%#8847ff 2.0%best hit $1,007 (12.59x)