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Fat Ninja

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$120.00
120 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
92.21%
EV $110.65 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.54%
5,615 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
92.55%±6.16696 openings
7 days
90.77%±2.354,779 openings
30 days
91.54%±2.175,615 openings
since tracking started
91.54%±2.175,615 openings
85.5%92.5%99.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h69692.55%±6.16+0.1σodds
7d4,77990.77%±2.35−1.2σodds
30d5,61591.54%±2.17−0.6σodds
All5,61591.54%±2.17−0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,638 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 1,000$1,205 1,205 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%65.61.06×
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 1,000$1,142 1,142 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%95.61.60×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife1 in 1,000$916 916 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%85.61.42×
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 500$806 806 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%611.30.53×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 333$707 707 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%1716.91.01×
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 333$613 613 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%1816.91.06×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 250$530 530 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%2622.61.15×
★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 250$444 444 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%2622.61.15×
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 200$337 337 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%2428.20.85×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 167$325 325 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%2833.80.83×
★ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert1 in 143$240 240 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%3439.50.86×
★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 111$200 200 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%4750.70.93×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 21 in 111$189 189 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%4150.70.81×
★ Bayonet | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 100$173 173 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%5156.40.90×
★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$167 167 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%4556.40.80×
★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 100$167 167 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%5656.40.99×
★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$165 165 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%6156.41.08×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 50$163 163 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.9%112112.80.99×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 40$161 161 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.6%136140.90.96×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 40$160 160 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.6%147140.91.04×
★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 40$151 151 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%140140.90.99×
★ Stiletto Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 29$150 150 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.7%186197.30.94×
★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 29$142 142 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.5%190197.30.96×
★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 29$139 139 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.4%185197.30.94×
★ Kukri Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 25$133 133 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.8%235225.51.04×
FAMAS | Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 25$132 132 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.8%209225.50.93×
★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25$127 127 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.6%245225.51.09×
★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 25$104 104 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%219225.50.97×
★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 25$104 104 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%231225.51.02×
★ Huntsman Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 20$90.80 90.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.1%284281.91.01×
★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 20$82.01 82.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%299281.91.06×
★ Falchion Knife | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 18$70.99 70.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.5%292310.10.94×
★ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 20$69.74 69.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.2%292281.91.04×
★ Falchion Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd7001 in 20$66.54 66.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%269281.90.95×
★ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 25$58.96 58.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%247225.51.10×
★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 33$44.72 44.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%157169.10.93×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33$38.70 38.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%173169.11.02×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Mount Fuji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 33$33.83 33.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%162169.10.96×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 33$30.46 30.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%192169.11.14×
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 33$25.93 25.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%168169.10.99×
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33$23.58 23.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%180169.11.06×
M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 33$21.15 21.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%185169.11.09×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3美波$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,2051,205 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.05x
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Dalathis$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,2051,205 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.05x
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Arast the top gamer$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,2051,205 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.05x
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Dalathis$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,2051,205 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.05x
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3ｌｅｘ１ｓ$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,2051,205 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.05x
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Olduvai_Joe$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,2051,205 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.05x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Ben$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1421,142 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.52x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3이멸치$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1421,142 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.52x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Свавик$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1421,142 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.52x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3᠌lumenywa$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1421,142 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.52x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Stiletto Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife✌(ツ)ว🌟$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.25x
★ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covertBrumos #24 ◢◤$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$69.7469.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.58x
★ Kukri Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertFl1p.$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$133133 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.11x
★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertEMAN$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$127127 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.06x
★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covertgetoutofmyhead$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$142142 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.18x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedMeme$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$30.4630.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.25x
★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeKurama$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$44.7244.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.37x
★ Stiletto Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeДалбаебище$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.25x
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert💎diazzye💎$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$163163 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.36x
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedCummy Wummy$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT$25.9325.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.22x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.21%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$12092.21%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 52.8%other 0.1%covert knife 23.4%Covert 0.7%#ffd700 5.0%classified 9.0%restricted 3.0%Classified 3.0%Industrial Grade 3.0%best hit $1,205 (10.05x)