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Zex

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$199.00
199 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
89.43%
EV $177.97 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.17%
5,033 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
88.83%±6.91528 openings
7 days
89.82%±2.464,160 openings
30 days
89.17%±2.255,033 openings
since tracking started
89.17%±2.255,033 openings
81.5%89.0%96.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h52888.83%±6.91−0.2σodds
7d4,16089.82%±2.46+0.2σodds
30d5,03389.17%±2.25−0.4σodds
All5,03389.17%±2.25−0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,052 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 500$1,753 1,753 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%1110.11.09×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 333$1,373 1,373 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%2115.21.39×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 11 in 333$1,116 1,116 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%1115.20.73×
★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 333$939 939 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%1415.20.92×
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 250$811 811 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%1120.20.54×
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 250$746 746 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%1920.20.94×
★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 200$705 705 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%2725.31.07×
★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert1 in 200$692 692 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%1725.30.67×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 200$591 591 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%4225.31.66×
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 167$504 504 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%2730.30.89×
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 167$480 480 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%930.30.30×
★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 143$416 416 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%3635.41.02×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 143$324 324 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%3835.41.07×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 100$316 316 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%3150.50.61×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic1 in 100$279 279 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%4350.50.85×
★ Skeleton Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 100$256 256 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%4650.50.91×
★ Stiletto Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 67$243 243 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%7075.80.92×
★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 50$240 240 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.7%87101.00.86×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B1 in 50$233 233 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%104101.01.03×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 40$221 221 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%131126.31.04×
★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 40$217 217 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%124126.30.98×
★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 33$215 215 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.6%149151.60.98×
★ Stiletto Knifeknife · covert1 in 33$205 205 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.5%145151.60.96×
★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 33$199 199 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%144151.60.95×
★ Stiletto Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 29$189 189 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%45176.80.25×
★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 25$179 179 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.0%210202.11.04×
★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 22$170 170 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.3%241227.31.06×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 22$153 153 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.9%207227.30.91×
★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20$144 144 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.1%249252.60.99×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 25$139 139 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%185202.10.92×
★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 25$134 134 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%208202.11.03×
★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 25$123 123 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%183202.10.91×
★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25$122 122 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%209202.11.03×
★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 25$115 115 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%177202.10.88×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 25$112 112 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%200202.10.99×
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife1 in 25$104 104 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%50202.10.25×
★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 25$98.56 98.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%220202.11.09×
★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25$86.10 86.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%231202.11.14×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$81.09 81.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%143151.60.94×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 33$73.93 73.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%159151.61.05×
★ Gut Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 33$63.78 63.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%161151.61.06×
StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50$56.93 56.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%96101.00.95×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33$40.50 40.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%141151.60.93×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyComfy is a girl$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,9891,989 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.99x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyBrunken$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,7531,753 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.81x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubyroboku$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,7531,753 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.81x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubyl33r0y$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,7531,753 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.81x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyASM$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,7531,753 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.81x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby4pock _152$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,7531,753 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.81x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyMr.Sander1980$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,7531,753 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.81x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyKeep Floatin'$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,7531,753 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.81x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyJakoDaMenace$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,7531,753 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.81x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyТочка Лагранжа L2$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,7531,753 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.81x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Stiletto Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covertCaveman Jeff$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$189189 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.95x
★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covertClaraaa-$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$179179 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.90x
★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertClaraaa-$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.58x
★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · coverteternity :v$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.62x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedeternity :v$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$40.5040.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.20x
★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert27 horas sin cagar$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$86.1086.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.43x
★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertClaraaa-$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.00x
★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert不拿控制 死 全 家$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$144144 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covertCallMeDaddy$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$73.9373.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.37x
★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covertCallMeDaddy$199199 HOTPIZZA_POINT$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.85x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.43%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC$19989.43%43
4 Nov, 14:11 UTC$19989.64%43
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$19990.06%43
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 72.7%other 4.3%gold 1.0%Covert 0.5%epic 2.0%#EB4B4B 2.0%covert knife 14.5%classified 3.0%best hit $1,989 (9.99x)