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Dr. Gamma

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$299.00
299 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
86.39%
EV $258.30 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.80%
3,250 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
87.50%±6.36329 openings
7 days
85.34%±2.232,759 openings
30 days
84.80%±2.053,250 openings
since tracking started
84.80%±2.053,250 openings
80.5%87.5%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h32987.50%±6.36+0.3σodds
7d2,75985.34%±2.23−1.0σodds
30d3,25084.80%±2.05−1.6σodds
All3,25084.80%±2.05−1.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,264 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 21 in 1,000$1,637 1,637 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%43.31.23×
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 1,000$1,422 1,422 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%33.30.92×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Phase 41 in 1,000$1,353 1,353 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%23.30.61×
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 333$1,254 1,254 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%49.80.41×
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 333$1,173 1,173 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%59.80.51×
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 333$1,145 1,145 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%69.80.61×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 41 in 250$1,063 1,063 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%1513.11.15×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 250$918 918 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%2113.11.61×
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 250$916 916 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%813.10.61×
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 250$872 872 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%713.10.54×
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 200$734 734 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%2016.31.23×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 143$644 644 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%1522.80.66×
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 100$522 522 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%2932.60.89×
★ Karambit | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 100$512 512 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%3332.61.01×
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 100$450 450 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%3032.60.92×
★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 100$449 449 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%2332.60.70×
★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 50$397 397 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%5665.30.86×
★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 50$369 369 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.9%5765.30.87×
★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 50$361 361 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%6465.30.98×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 50$359 359 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%6665.31.01×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 50$332 332 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%6265.30.95×
★ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 50$313 313 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%5865.30.89×
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 50$311 311 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%8765.31.33×
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd7001 in 50$310 310 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%5165.30.78×
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal1 in 33$282 282 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%11497.91.16×
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 33$277 277 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.2%11397.91.15×
★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 25$269 269 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.2%130130.61.00×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 11 in 25$262 262 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.1%138130.61.06×
★ Talon Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 25$240 240 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%148130.61.13×
★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 25$237 237 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%127130.60.97×
★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 17$224 224 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.2%202195.81.03×
★ Stiletto Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 17$202 202 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.7%170195.80.87×
★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20$187 187 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.6%169163.21.04×
★ Skeleton Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 20$176 176 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%189163.21.16×
★ Bayonet | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 20$159 159 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%171163.21.05×
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 20$156 156 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%173163.21.06×
★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 20$153 153 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%161163.20.99×
★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 25$145 145 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%137130.61.05×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 25$138 138 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%98130.60.75×
★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 25$128 128 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%122130.60.93×
★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 50$102 102 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%6565.31.00×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · Knives1 in 33$93.32 93.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%10197.91.03×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2QLCMoonlight$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6371,637 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.47x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2Funny Looking Dog$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6371,637 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.47x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2Alejandro$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6371,637 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.47x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2BatuSay$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6371,637 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.47x
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeandrejdeputat$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4221,422 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.76x
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife$6.61$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4221,422 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.76x
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifePardelho_PT$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4221,422 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.76x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireApOc1911$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3661,366 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.57x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireJames...$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3661,366 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.57x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireCHOOPPY$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3661,366 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.57x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertNoru$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$187187 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.62x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1ImmortalSquash$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$311311 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.04x
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covertJack™$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$872872 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.91x
★ Karambit | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covertJack™$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$512512 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.71x
★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeChaoticTTV$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$224224 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.75x
★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeboop$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$153153 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.51x
★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covertChaoticTTV$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$269269 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.90x
★ Bayonet | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covertboop$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$159159 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.53x
★ Bayonet | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covertDr. Eegman$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$159159 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.53x
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1✌(ツ)ว🌟$299299 HOTPIZZA_POINT$262262 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.88x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.39%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC$29986.39%42
4 Nov, 14:11 UTC$29986.57%42
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$29986.31%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 44.4%covert knife 43.2%other 0.1%Immortal 3.3%#ffd700 2.0%gold 4.0%Knives 3.0%best hit $1,637 (5.47x)