Lola

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.00

15 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

99.39%

EV $14.91 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.35%

9,443 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.44%±7.061,112 openings

7 days

97.37%±2.657,925 openings

30 days

97.35%±2.429,443 openings

since tracking started

97.35%±2.429,443 openings

86.5%94.3%102.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,112	94.44%±7.06	−1.4σ	odds
7d	7,925	97.37%±2.65	−1.5σ	odds
30d	9,443	97.35%±2.42	−1.6σ	odds
All	9,443	97.35%±2.42	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,474 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$228 228 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	13	9.5	1.37×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$218 218 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	16	14.2	1.13×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 500	$173 173 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	15	18.9	0.79×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 333	$155 155 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	20	28.4	0.70×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 250	$115 115 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	31	37.9	0.82×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$63.19 63.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	44	47.4	0.93×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 167	$51.88 51.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	60	56.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 167	$46.39 46.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	45	56.8	0.79×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 143	$43.01 43.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	62	66.3	0.93×
Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 125	$39.78 39.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	64	75.8	0.84×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 111	$32.51 32.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	81	85.3	0.95×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$25.88 25.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	102	94.7	1.08×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$24.97 24.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	90	94.7	0.95×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$23.40 23.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	79	94.7	0.83×
Souvenir USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 80	$21.24 21.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	126	118.4	1.06×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$20.38 20.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	161	142.1	1.13×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 67	$19.03 19.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	136	142.1	0.96×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 67	$19.02 19.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	150	142.1	1.06×
P250 \| Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 50	$18.26 18.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	210	189.5	1.11×
Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$17.67 17.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	179	189.5	0.94×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 40	$16.20 16.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	236	236.8	1.00×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$15.73 15.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	257	284.2	0.90×
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$15.34 15.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	301	284.2	1.06×
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$14.81 14.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	367	379.0	0.97×
MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$13.42 13.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	373	379.0	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 22	$13.14 13.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	440	426.3	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	432	473.7	0.91×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 20	$12.68 12.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	466	473.7	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$12.56 12.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	487	473.7	1.03×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$11.22 11.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	470	473.7	0.99×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$10.21 10.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	439	473.7	0.93×
MAC-10 \| Tatter (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$9.60 9.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	563	568.4	0.99×
P250 \| Contamination (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$8.22 8.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	492	473.7	1.04×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 25	$8.16 8.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	414	379.0	1.09×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$7.72 7.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	391	379.0	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$7.14 7.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	366	379.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$6.02 6.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	273	284.2	0.96×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 33	$5.75 5.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	325	284.2	1.14×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$5.74 5.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	292	284.2	1.03×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$5.54 5.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	211	189.5	1.11×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$4.08 4.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	195	189.5	1.03×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Tatter (Factory New)weapon · violetDanjgem$15.0015 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.609.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.64x4m

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covertDanjgem$15.0015 HOTPIZZA_POINT$63.1963.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.21x4m

MAC-10 | Tatter (Factory New)weapon · violetDanjgem$15.0015 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.609.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.64x4m

MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedDanjgem$15.0015 HOTPIZZA_POINT$15.3415.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.02x4m

Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)weapon · MythicalŽaneček$15.0015 HOTPIZZA_POINT$7.147.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.48x4m

Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)weapon · Mythicalfoifan$15.0015 HOTPIZZA_POINT$7.147.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.48x10m

P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumerfoifan$15.0015 HOTPIZZA_POINT$18.2618.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.22x10m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedfoifan$15.0015 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.026.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.40x10m

MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedfoifan$15.0015 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.545.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.37x10m

Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6foifan$15.0015 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.755.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.38x10m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 99.39%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$15.00	99.39%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 14.9%covert 0.7%#eb4b4b 0.2%rare 1.0%red 0.6%Ancient 0.7%industrial 8.8%#d32ee6 3.9%restricted 25.5%violet 7.0%Restricted 8.8%#8847FF 1.5%consumer 2.0%Mythical 13.5%milspec 5.0%pink 6.0%best hit —