Ragnar

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9.50

9.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

96.36%

EV $9.15 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.63%

12.3K openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.32%±7.501,436 openings

7 days

94.30%±2.8110.3K openings

30 days

93.63%±2.5712.3K openings

since tracking started

93.63%±2.5712.3K openings

86.0%94.2%102.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 96.37% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.06% – 96.20%, 12,275 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,436	94.32%±7.50	−0.5σ	odds
7d	10.3K	94.30%±2.81	−1.5σ	odds
30d	12.3K	93.63%±2.57	−2.1σ	odds
All	12.3K	93.63%±2.57	−2.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$204 204 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	13	12.3	1.06×
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 667	$183 183 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	8	18.4	0.43×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$147 147 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	10	24.6	0.41×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · sunny	1 in 400	$94.99 94.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	6	30.7	0.20×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Immortal	1 in 333	$76.55 76.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	22	36.9	0.60×
★ Paracord Knifeknife · covert	1 in 250	$55.92 55.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	43	49.2	0.87×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$40.33 40.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	58	61.5	0.94×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 200	$33.43 33.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	55	61.5	0.89×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$32.02 32.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	62	73.8	0.84×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 167	$31.28 31.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	58	73.8	0.79×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 143	$21.86 21.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	90	86.1	1.05×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$17.80 17.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	93	98.4	0.95×
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 111	$16.46 16.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	105	110.7	0.95×
SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 100	$15.37 15.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	117	123.0	0.95×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 100	$14.39 14.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	108	123.0	0.88×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$13.48 13.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	127	123.0	1.03×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$12.53 12.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	132	123.0	1.07×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$11.87 11.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	125	123.0	1.02×
P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$11.05 11.05 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	97	123.0	0.79×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$10.85 10.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	254	246.0	1.03×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$10.28 10.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	259	246.0	1.05×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$10.09 10.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	267	246.0	1.09×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #D32CE6	1 in 50	$9.86 9.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	244	246.0	0.99×
Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Heavy	1 in 33	$9.62 9.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	377	368.9	1.02×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 33	$9.42 9.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	358	368.9	0.97×
MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$9.32 9.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	470	491.9	0.96×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$8.76 8.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	497	491.9	1.01×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$7.63 7.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	486	491.9	0.99×
MP7 \| Scorched (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 25	$7.16 7.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	504	491.9	1.02×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 22	$7.03 7.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	543	553.4	0.98×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 17	$6.56 6.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	757	737.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$6.48 6.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	808	737.9	1.10×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$6.02 6.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	699	737.9	0.95×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$5.87 5.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	671	676.4	0.99×
MAG-7 \| Sonar (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$5.57 5.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	630	614.9	1.02×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 20	$4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	639	614.9	1.04×
XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$4.13 4.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	478	491.9	0.97×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$3.97 3.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	502	491.9	1.02×
AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$3.81 3.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	376	368.9	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$3.08 3.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	371	368.9	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$3.01 3.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	374	368.9	1.01×
Souvenir USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 33	$2.40 2.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	359	368.9	0.97×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Entombed (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkDer_Dome$9.509.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.134.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.43x1m

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedDer_Dome$9.509.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.768.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.92x1m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6Der_Dome$9.509.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.429.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.99x1m

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New)weapon · RareDer_Dome$9.509.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.575.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.59x1m

R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedDer_Dome$9.509.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.4813.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.42x1m

MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalDer_Dome$9.509.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.329.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.98x1m

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedscarsick$9.509.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.486.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.68x2m

Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New)weapon · violetBest Onee Sama -Eu$9.509.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.026.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.63x4m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHypeer$9.509.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.973.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.42x8m

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedHypeer$9.509.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$14.3914.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.51x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 96.36%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 16:33 UTC	$9.50	96.36%	42
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$9.50	96.38%	42

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%covert knife 0.2%sunny 0.3%Immortal 0.3%classified 22.3%pink 7.5%restricted 15.1%Classified 0.6%mil spec 0.7%#d32ee6 0.9%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%Restricted 11.5%Legendary 1.0%#D32CE6 2.0%Heavy 3.0%#d32ce6 3.0%Mythical 4.0%consumer 4.0%violet 6.0%Rare 5.0%uncommon 5.0%milspec 3.0%best hit —