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Gordon

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$250.00
250 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
86.91%
EV $217.26 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.45%
4,723 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
85.77%±4.92556 openings
7 days
87.05%±1.843,963 openings
30 days
87.45%±1.684,723 openings
since tracking started
87.45%±1.684,723 openings
80.0%85.8%91.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h55685.77%±4.92−0.5σodds
7d3,96387.05%±1.84+0.2σodds
30d4,72387.45%±1.68+0.7σodds
All4,72387.45%±1.68+0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,728 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 1,000$1,621 1,621 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%64.71.27×
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 1,000$1,478 1,478 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%84.71.69×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 21 in 1,000$1,353 1,353 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%24.70.42×
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,000$1,198 1,198 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%24.70.42×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 500$1,161 1,161 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%109.51.06×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 500$1,152 1,152 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%119.51.16×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Knives1 in 500$1,069 1,069 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%39.50.32×
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 500$1,011 1,011 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%99.50.95×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 333$930 930 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%514.20.35×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 333$926 926 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%1314.20.92×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 333$814 814 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%1614.21.13×
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 333$746 746 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%1714.21.20×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 250$637 637 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2318.91.22×
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 200$504 504 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2223.60.93×
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 125$430 430 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%3237.80.85×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 143$386 386 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%3433.11.03×
★ Nomad Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · legendary1 in 100$329 329 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%5247.31.10×
★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 100$324 324 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%6247.31.31×
★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$318 318 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%3647.30.76×
★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 50$283 283 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%9694.61.02×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 50$281 281 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%8794.60.92×
★ Stiletto Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 40$270 270 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%114118.20.96×
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · #EB4B4B1 in 33$269 269 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%114141.80.80×
★ Talon Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 33$258 258 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.6%136141.80.96×
★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 33$241 241 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%149141.81.05×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 33$233 233 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.2%158141.81.11×
★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 33$225 225 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%114141.80.80×
★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 33$220 220 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%145141.81.02×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 33$212 212 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.9%126141.80.89×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 20$196 196 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.5%221236.40.93×
★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 20$190 190 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.4%238236.41.01×
★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 20$189 189 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.3%233236.40.99×
★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 17$185 185 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.1%294283.71.04×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rare1 in 20$163 163 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%249236.41.05×
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert1 in 17$161 161 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.5%284283.71.00×
★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 17$160 160 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.4%305283.71.08×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B1 in 20$154 154 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.6%236236.41.00×
★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 25$151 151 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%181189.10.96×
★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 25$149 149 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.7%168189.10.89×
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 25$135 135 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%193189.11.02×
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 33$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%121141.80.85×
★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 33$117 117 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%132141.80.93×
★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 27$112 112 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%178174.91.02×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3BAN1XON❤$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6211,621 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.49x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3HejDaFrid$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6211,621 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.49x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3HuntLD$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6211,621 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.49x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3CryoKyro$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6211,621 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.49x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3jurasss$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6211,621 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.49x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3b u d d$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6211,621 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.49x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeFitrus$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4781,478 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.91x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifefun game$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4781,478 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.91x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeJohnny Creep$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4781,478 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.91x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeGhost of pl_frontier$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4781,478 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.91x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertbriliant player$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$185185 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.74x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeDan11al$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$233233 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.93x
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Dan11al$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$135135 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.54x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifebleach⁶⁵$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$386386 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.55x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3(TK)+|toycar|+$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0111,011 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.04x
★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3DioBrando$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.88x
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rareDioBrando$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$163163 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.65x
★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · goldAleX_RaEz$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.90x
★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covertAlexandrio$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$189189 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.75x
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyhenning$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT$126126 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.51x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC$25086.91%43
4 Nov, 14:11 UTC$25086.86%43
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$25086.80%43
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 39.7%covert knife 27.5%Knives 0.2%Covert 6.3%gold 3.3%legendary 1.0%#EB4B4B 8.0%rare 11.0%sunny 3.0%best hit $1,621 (6.49x)