Chickenasiimov
A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.00
1 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
102.70%
EV $1.03 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.38%
42.9K openings, odds method
Variance
13.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 102.69% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.89% – 101.87%, 42,922 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertMarcus Giovannis$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT115.0x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertпiдбитый шушпiнчик (пудж)$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT115.0x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertI am the Capitan now!TRADEIT.GG$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT115.0x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertGeneral Milk Tooth$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT115.0x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertIT'S VLAD$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT115.0x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertAeolus～夢吐$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT115.0x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertReservegud$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT115.0x
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | 27 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueChickenRun$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.230.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.23x
MP7 | Astrolabe (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialChickenRun$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.280.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.28x
USP-S | 27 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueArvAsli CunT$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.230.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.23x
SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffArvAsli CunT$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.632.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.63x
UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffArvAsli CunT$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.154.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.15x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalArvAsli CunT$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.141.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.14x
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalInfinite$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.610.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.61x
Glock-18 | Weasel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffantelmo bonifacio peixe$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.751.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.75x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedantelmo bonifacio peixe$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.461.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.46x
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeItsCalyptic$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.501.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.50x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 102.70%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $1.00 | 102.70% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $1.00 | 102.68% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.00 | 102.72% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 4.0%covert 0.3%Legendary 0.2%pink 0.3%#4b69ff 20.7%mil spec 17.0%#8847ff 1.7%restricted 2.2%Mil Spec Grade 5.1%milspec 15.0%Industrial Grade 1.5%blue 4.5%Rare 6.5%Mythical 7.0%gray 4.0%violet 6.0%industrial 4.0%best hit $115 (115.0x)