Mission the Detectivo
A case on Hotpizza.gg (Operation «HOTPIZZA»), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.00
16 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
90.68%
EV $14.51 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.36%
9,693 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.68% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.24% – 89.49%, 9,693 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,706 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricteddelmar.$16.0016 HOTPIZZA_POINT$860860 HOTPIZZA_POINT53.77x
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedMiss Silversun$16.0016 HOTPIZZA_POINT$860860 HOTPIZZA_POINT53.77x
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedSchizophrenicOrange$16.0016 HOTPIZZA_POINT$860860 HOTPIZZA_POINT53.77x
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer(TK)+|toycar|+$16.0016 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.046.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.38x
Dual Berettas | Pyre (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff(TK)+|toycar|+$16.0016 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.8113.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.86x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalCyber | Moon$16.0016 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.588.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.54x
P250 | Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkdead$16.0016 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.734.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.30x
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil specdead$16.0016 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.004 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.25x
Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerBernardo__Plays$16.0016 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.046.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.38x
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil specBernardo__Plays$16.0016 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.004 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.25x
P250 | Hive (Factory New)weapon · milspecBernardo__Plays$16.0016 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.875.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.37x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedSlayDragon.exe$16.0016 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.335.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.33x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.68%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $16.00 | 90.68% | 41 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 19.4%covert 0.1%Classified 0.3%classified 34.8%industrial 4.6%mil spec 2.8%violet 1.0%milspec 7.0%red 1.0%Industrial Grade 4.0%#87c7ff 5.0%blue 4.0%Mythical 4.0%Rare 3.0%Mil Spec Grade 3.0%consumer 3.0%pink 3.0%best hit $860 (53.77x)