Mission the Tribe

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Operation «‎HOTPIZZA»‎), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$26.00

26 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

89.40%

EV $23.24 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.52%

8,088 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.23%±9.93912 openings

7 days

90.25%±3.676,666 openings

30 days

89.52%±3.338,088 openings

since tracking started

89.52%±3.338,088 openings

80.5%91.3%102.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	912	91.23%±9.93	+0.4σ	odds
7d	6,666	90.25%±3.67	+0.5σ	odds
30d	8,088	89.52%±3.33	+0.1σ	odds
All	8,088	89.52%±3.33	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,110 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,000	$836 836 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	8	8.1	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$659 659 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	12	8.1	1.48×
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$264 264 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	6	8.1	0.74×
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$242 242 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	9	8.1	1.11×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 333	$224 224 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	16	24.3	0.66×
★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$173 173 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	30	32.4	0.92×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 250	$145 145 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	28	32.4	0.86×
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$122 122 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	41	40.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 200	$57.44 57.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	52	40.5	1.28×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 143	$46.62 46.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	52	56.8	0.92×
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$45.88 45.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	64	56.8	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$43.38 43.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	61	56.8	1.07×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 111	$40.25 40.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	74	73.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 100	$39.01 39.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	83	81.1	1.02×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$35.28 35.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	73	81.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$34.18 34.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	148	162.2	0.91×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 50	$30.61 30.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	168	162.2	1.04×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 33	$29.40 29.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	270	243.3	1.11×
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$26.76 26.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	321	324.4	0.99×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$26.76 26.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	328	324.4	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$25.08 25.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	330	324.4	1.02×
Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 25	$22.44 22.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	326	324.4	1.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$21.23 21.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	290	324.4	0.89×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$20.06 20.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	336	324.4	1.04×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$19.30 19.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	313	324.4	0.96×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 22	$18.44 18.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	378	364.9	1.04×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon	1 in 25	$18.44 18.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	337	324.4	1.04×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 25	$17.23 17.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	320	324.4	0.99×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$15.42 15.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	307	324.4	0.95×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$14.53 14.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	323	324.4	1.00×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$14.06 14.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	338	324.4	1.04×
AUG \| Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$13.57 13.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	304	324.4	0.94×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$13.38 13.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	327	324.4	1.01×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$13.30 13.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	330	324.4	1.02×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$12.26 12.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	228	243.3	0.94×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 33	$11.76 11.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	270	243.3	1.11×
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$11.74 11.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	238	243.3	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 50	$10.66 10.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	170	162.2	1.05×
P250 \| Dark Filigree (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 50	$9.91 9.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	166	162.2	1.02×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$8.60 8.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	172	162.2	1.06×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$7.38 7.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	142	162.2	0.88×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 50	$7.30 7.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	155	162.2	0.96×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$6.16 6.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	166	162.2	1.02×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classifiedgamblerr.JR$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$836836 HOTPIZZA_POINT32.17x7h

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedBooger$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$836836 HOTPIZZA_POINT32.17x4d

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedBamse$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$836836 HOTPIZZA_POINT32.17x5d

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedReezaX$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$836836 HOTPIZZA_POINT32.17x6d

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedFAT COW$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$836836 HOTPIZZA_POINT32.17x6d

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedDuarte Rei Delas$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$836836 HOTPIZZA_POINT32.17x6d

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedDR BOOM$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$836836 HOTPIZZA_POINT32.17x6d

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified// POLICE ASSAULT IN PROGRESS //$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$836836 HOTPIZZA_POINT32.17x7d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeGavinrajurus$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$659659 HOTPIZZA_POINT25.36x18h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeGral.Peron rustchance.com$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$659659 HOTPIZZA_POINT25.36x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertdante$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.69x8m

Souvenir AK-47 | Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Gradedante$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2317.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.66x8m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalCuriousCoffee$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$26.7626.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.03x14m

Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerCuriousCoffee$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.6610.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.41x14m

P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New)weapon · industrialClaraaa-$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.919.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.38x24m

Souvenir AK-47 | Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec GradeClaraaa-$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2317.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.66x24m

Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedОрех$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.608.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.33x24m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil specFrapless$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.166.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.24x27m

Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weaponAdam Bieber$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$18.4418.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.71x29m

Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weaponkynilover$26.0026 HOTPIZZA_POINT$18.4418.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.71x30m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.40%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$26.00	89.40%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedClassified 0.1%covert knife 0.8%covert 1.1%Ancient 2.4%red 3.7%restricted 2.7%classified 39.2%Restricted 5.0%#eb4b4b 2.0%Mythical 4.0%other 4.0%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%#4b69ff 4.0%mil spec 6.0%Legendary 4.0%milspec 3.0%pink 6.0%consumer 2.0%industrial 2.0%#8847ff 2.0%#d32ce6 2.0%best hit $836 (32.17x)