Mission the Hunter

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Operation «‎HOTPIZZA»‎), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$50.00

50 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

84.08%

EV $42.04 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.84%

6,868 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.14%±7.63799 openings

7 days

82.95%±2.855,720 openings

30 days

81.84%±2.606,868 openings

since tracking started

81.84%±2.606,868 openings

78.0%86.3%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	799	86.14%±7.63	+0.5σ	odds
7d	5,720	82.95%±2.85	−0.8σ	odds
30d	6,868	81.84%±2.60	−1.7σ	odds
All	6,868	81.84%±2.60	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,879 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 667	$839 839 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	13	10.3	1.26×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$504 504 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	8	13.8	0.58×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 400	$365 365 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	11	17.2	0.64×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 333	$327 327 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	16	20.6	0.78×
Souvenir AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Ancient	1 in 250	$300 300 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	24	27.5	0.87×
AWP \| CMYK (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$208 208 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	26	27.5	0.94×
AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 200	$164 164 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	33	34.4	0.96×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$161 161 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	22	34.4	0.64×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 167	$148 148 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	41	41.3	0.99×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$145 145 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	45	41.3	1.09×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 167	$135 135 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	40	41.3	0.97×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$132 132 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	62	68.8	0.90×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$111 111 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	61	68.8	0.89×
Souvenir AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$101 101 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	64	68.8	0.93×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$73.79 73.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	69	68.8	1.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$62.36 62.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	74	68.8	1.08×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 50	$56.84 56.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	144	137.6	1.05×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$55.61 55.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	128	137.6	0.93×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$51.40 51.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	208	206.4	1.01×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$44.65 44.65 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	259	275.2	0.94×
Souvenir FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 25	$41.72 41.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	308	275.2	1.12×
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$40.07 40.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	291	275.2	1.06×
AWP \| LongDog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 25	$37.44 37.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	274	275.2	1.00×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$36.10 36.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	341	343.9	0.99×
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 20	$32.53 32.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	370	343.9	1.08×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 20	$31.64 31.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	339	343.9	0.99×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$29.92 29.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	362	343.9	1.05×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 20	$27.68 27.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	321	343.9	0.93×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 18	$26.90 26.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	388	378.3	1.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$24.92 24.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	400	412.7	0.97×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 17	$22.87 22.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	409	412.7	0.99×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$21.25 21.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	367	343.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Parallax (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 25	$20.85 20.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	277	275.2	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$20.58 20.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	342	343.9	0.99×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Wings (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$19.00 19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	197	206.4	0.95×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$14.16 14.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	210	206.4	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$7.29 7.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	205	206.4	0.99×
AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$6.26 6.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	130	137.6	0.94×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertNoppel$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$839839 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.77x7h

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertCeranity$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$839839 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.77x3d

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertHidek1$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$839839 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.77x4d

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertGocage$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$839839 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.77x4d

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertC⁧⁧K$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$839839 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.77x4d

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertScoosh$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$839839 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.77x4d

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertIshnrgas$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$839839 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.77x5d

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertEnoste$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$839839 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.77x5d

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertba7ista$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$839839 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.77x5d

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertBinarySoldier$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$839839 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.77x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Death's Head (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedClaϟϟon$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.5820.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.41x1m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBanane$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$26.9026.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.54x2m

AWP | LongDog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · AncientBanane$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$37.4437.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.75x2m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedCritical$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$21.2521.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.43x5m

AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rareCritical$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$32.5332.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.65x5m

StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertHypeer$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$29.9229.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.60x8m

SSG 08 | Death's Head (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedHypeer$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.5820.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.41x8m

SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryHypeer$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$31.6431.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.63x8m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedHypeer$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$26.9026.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.54x8m

StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertloretta lynn$50.0050 HOTPIZZA_POINT$51.4051.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.03x9m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.08%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$50.00	84.08%	38
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$50.00	84.10%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 13.9%legendary 0.3%Ancient 5.7%red 0.5%Legendary 5.6%classified 26.1%Covert 2.0%#8847FF 4.0%restricted 19.0%rare 5.0%Classified 5.0%Restricted 10.0%milspec 3.0%best hit $839 (16.77x)