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Mission the Idol

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Operation «‎HOTPIZZA»‎), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$75.00
75 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
87.16%
EV $65.37 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.07%
5,806 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
86.27%±5.86710 openings
7 days
85.01%±2.224,895 openings
30 days
85.07%±2.035,806 openings
since tracking started
85.07%±2.035,806 openings
80.0%86.5%93.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.21% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.04% – 87.10%, 5,806 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h71086.27%±5.86−0.3σodds
7d4,89585.01%±2.22−2.0σodds
30d5,80685.07%±2.03−2.1σodds
All5,80685.07%±2.03−2.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,820 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 2,000$1,305 1,305 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%32.91.03×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,000$1,081 1,081 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%32.91.03×
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 667$535 535 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%68.70.69×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 667$392 392 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%38.70.34×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 333$376 376 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%317.50.17×
AK-47 | Jet Set (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 250$349 349 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%1723.30.73×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 250$240 240 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%2023.30.86×
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 143$208 208 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%2940.70.71×
AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 143$174 174 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%3440.70.83×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 125$156 156 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%5246.61.12×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 100$147 147 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%5258.20.89×
AK-47 | B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 100$134 134 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%5258.20.89×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 77$128 128 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%6275.70.82×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 50$112 112 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%115116.40.99×
Souvenir AK-47 | B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 50$112 112 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%17116.40.15×
AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 33$102 102 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.7%157174.60.90×
StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 33$91.25 91.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.2%192174.61.10×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33$83.52 83.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%185174.61.06×
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 33$71.29 71.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%21174.60.12×
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$70.72 70.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.2%19174.60.11×
FAMAS | Spitfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 33$69.50 69.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.2%184174.61.05×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 33$67.37 67.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%146174.60.84×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 25$63.44 63.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.9%246232.81.06×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 25$62.23 62.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%226232.80.97×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare1 in 25$60.01 60.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%36232.80.15×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 25$59.52 59.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.6%231232.80.99×
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 25$56.48 56.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.5%245232.81.05×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 25$55.07 55.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%260232.81.12×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 25$46.60 46.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.9%231232.80.99×
Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted1 in 20$44.15 44.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%293291.01.01×
StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 25$44.10 44.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.7%247232.81.06×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$43.41 43.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%178174.61.02×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 33$39.02 39.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%143174.60.82×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$35.34 35.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%186174.61.07×
Souvenir Tec-9 | Brass (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 33$34.25 34.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%186174.61.07×
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$33.90 33.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%164174.60.94×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 33$32.12 32.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%169174.60.97×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33$31.55 31.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%198174.61.13×
SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 33$24.19 24.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%20174.60.11×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33$22.00 22 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%193174.61.11×
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 50$20.30 20.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%18116.40.15×
Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 50$18.91 18.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%101116.40.87×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covertOnind$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3051,305 HOTPIZZA_POINT17.41x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covertДаниил$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3051,305 HOTPIZZA_POINT17.41x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covertCHINASES$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3051,305 HOTPIZZA_POINT17.41x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertAliceee- | 紫の$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0811,081 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.42x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert7AKE0ff$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0811,081 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.42x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert❅ xBaRToX ❣$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0811,081 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.42x
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classifiedGeavy$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$535535 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.13x
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classifiedCatalina 🥀💫$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$535535 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.13x
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classifiedCloaks$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$535535 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.13x
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classifiedDemonyxi$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$535535 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.13x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
FAMAS | Spitfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedMrWildKard$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$69.5069.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.93x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertBigtymer85$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$35.3435.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.47x
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covertbaguette$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$67.3767.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.90x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertMrWildKard$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$376376 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.01x
FAMAS | Spitfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedBigtymer85$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$69.5069.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.93x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedbaguette$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$83.5283.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.11x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedMrWildKard$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$46.6046.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.62x
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classifiedfygozerAA$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$56.4856.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.75x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rareeternity :v$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$60.0160.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.80x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertDanjgem$75.0075 HOTPIZZA_POINT$43.4143.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.58x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.16%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 14:05 UTC$75.0087.16%42
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$75.0087.22%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 31.6%classified 22.1%red 3.4%industrial 0.7%Ancient 1.0%Legendary 1.3%#eb4b4b 3.0%mil spec 6.0%restricted 8.0%Classified 11.0%rare 4.0%Restricted 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 3.0%best hit $1,305 (17.41x)