Mission the Jungle

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Operation «‎HOTPIZZA»‎), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$100.00

100 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

97.72%

EV $97.72 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.83%

5,900 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.65%±7.74788 openings

7 days

97.25%±3.165,028 openings

30 days

97.83%±2.925,900 openings

since tracking started

97.83%±2.925,900 openings

84.5%93.0%101.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	788	92.65%±7.74	−1.3σ	odds
7d	5,028	97.25%±3.16	−0.8σ	odds
30d	5,900	97.83%±2.92	−0.5σ	odds
All	5,900	97.83%±2.92	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,911 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 2,000	$2,071 2,071 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	2	3.0	0.68×
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 2,000	$1,397 1,397 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	4	3.0	1.35×
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 667	$1,037 1,037 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	9	8.9	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 667	$807 807 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	4	8.9	0.45×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$797 797 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	13	11.8	1.10×
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 250	$697 697 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	22	23.6	0.93×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$525 525 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	24	23.6	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 250	$427 427 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	32	23.6	1.35×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$389 389 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	36	35.5	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$371 371 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	34	35.5	0.96×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$345 345 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	42	35.5	1.18×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 167	$310 310 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	43	35.5	1.21×
★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$300 300 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	40	35.5	1.13×
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 143	$207 207 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	41	41.4	0.99×
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 125	$194 194 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	42	47.3	0.89×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 125	$190 190 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	40	47.3	0.85×
★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 100	$183 183 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	57	59.1	0.96×
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$179 179 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	64	59.1	1.08×
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$169 169 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	60	59.1	1.02×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$167 167 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	53	59.1	0.90×
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$163 163 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	44	59.1	0.74×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$161 161 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	53	59.1	0.90×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$156 156 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	60	59.1	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Knives	1 in 100	$152 152 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	14	59.1	0.24×
★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$151 151 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	7	59.1	0.12×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$148 148 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	47	59.1	0.80×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$131 131 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	56	59.1	0.95×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert	1 in 100	$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	44	59.1	0.74×
★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$114 114 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	57	59.1	0.96×
★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 91	$109 109 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	8	65.0	0.12×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 77	$92.74 92.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	8	76.8	0.10×
★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 13	$90.07 90.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	7.4%	464	472.9	0.98×
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 40	$88.49 88.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	135	147.8	0.91×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$82.18 82.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	291	295.6	0.98×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 13	$78.78 78.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.4%	492	472.9	1.04×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 13	$76.38 76.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.3%	452	472.9	0.96×
★ Classic Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 13	$68.52 68.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.6%	488	472.9	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$55.87 55.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	474	472.9	1.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 13	$50.57 50.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	512	472.9	1.08×
★ Navaja Knifeknife · covert	1 in 13	$43.84 43.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	479	472.9	1.01×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$36.22 36.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	62	354.7	0.17×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$30.32 30.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	239	236.4	1.01×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$25.62 25.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	141	118.2	1.19×
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$22.90 22.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	102	118.2	0.86×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Burkay$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,0712,071 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.71x4d

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1KukumiQ$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,0712,071 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.71x8d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4☭HigglesOG☭™$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3971,397 HOTPIZZA_POINT13.97x1d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4FRXS$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3971,397 HOTPIZZA_POINT13.97x5d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4☬爪℟_₡øىʍℴȿ☬$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3971,397 HOTPIZZA_POINT13.97x5d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4🐼 𝓢𝓶𝓮𝓵𝓸$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3971,397 HOTPIZZA_POINT13.97x6d

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertGuaffer$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1951,195 HOTPIZZA_POINT11.95x2d

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertmask and da glock$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1951,195 HOTPIZZA_POINT11.95x3d

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertEmma Einhorn$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1951,195 HOTPIZZA_POINT11.95x4d

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertANALPAIN$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1951,195 HOTPIZZA_POINT11.95x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedMercy$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$30.3230.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.30x2m

★ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeKRICO$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$82.1882.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.82x6m

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertMouke$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$55.8755.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.56x6m

★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifebExa$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$68.5268.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x11m

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifebExa$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$78.7878.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.79x11m

★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifeAbdrosel$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$68.5268.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x14m

★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covertHarumi$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$88.4988.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.88x14m

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeHaryayiar$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$78.7878.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.79x14m

★ Navaja Knifeknife · covertAbdrosel$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$43.8443.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x14m

★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeHarumi$100100 HOTPIZZA_POINT$345345 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.45x14m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 97.72%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$100	97.72%	44
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$100	98.66%	44

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 27.2%covert knife 47.2%Immortal 0.7%#ffd700 1.0%Knives 1.0%Covert 9.0%restricted 6.0%classified 6.0%milspec 2.0%best hit $2,071 (20.71x)