Mission the Ritual

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Operation «‎HOTPIZZA»‎), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$170.00

170 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

91.59%

EV $155.70 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.24%

5,304 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

37.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.32%±6.30620 openings

7 days

89.32%±2.374,436 openings

30 days

89.24%±2.165,304 openings

since tracking started

89.24%±2.165,304 openings

82.5%89.5%96.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 91.77% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.08% – 91.40%, 5,304 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	620	89.32%±6.30	−0.7σ	odds
7d	4,436	89.32%±2.37	−2.0σ	odds
30d	5,304	89.24%±2.16	−2.3σ	odds
All	5,304	89.24%±2.16	−2.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,319 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,000	$4,671 4,671 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	0	2.7	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 1,000	$1,174 1,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	5	5.3	0.94×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$822 822 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	7	5.3	1.32×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 667	$780 780 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	4	8.0	0.50×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 500	$745 745 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	11	10.6	1.03×
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 333	$741 741 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	16	16.0	1.00×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 333	$623 623 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	15	16.0	0.94×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 250	$573 573 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	18	21.3	0.85×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$442 442 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	17	21.3	0.80×
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 167	$406 406 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	5	31.9	0.16×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 143	$333 333 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	5	37.2	0.13×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 143	$274 274 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	40	37.2	1.07×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$261 261 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	54	53.2	1.02×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 100	$254 254 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	55	53.2	1.03×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 100	$237 237 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	44	53.2	0.83×
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$235 235 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	6	53.2	0.11×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$225 225 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	39	53.2	0.73×
★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$223 223 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	54	53.2	1.02×
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$222 222 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	57	53.2	1.07×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$219 219 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	49	53.2	0.92×
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$216 216 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	49	53.2	0.92×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$203 203 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	47	53.2	0.88×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 100	$191 191 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	50	53.2	0.94×
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$189 189 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	8	53.2	0.15×
★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$181 181 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	54	53.2	1.02×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 50	$178 178 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	90	106.4	0.85×
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 33	$170 170 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	163	159.6	1.02×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 33	$161 161 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	161	159.6	1.01×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 25	$155 155 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	211	212.8	0.99×
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$154 154 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	224	212.8	1.05×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$152 152 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	231	212.8	1.09×
★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$144 144 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	210	212.8	0.99×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 25	$144 144 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	30	212.8	0.14×
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$141 141 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	211	212.8	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie KnifeStatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$138 138 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	212	212.8	1.00×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife	1 in 25	$134 134 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	216	212.8	1.02×
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$132 132 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	293	265.9	1.10×
★ Nomad Knifeknife · covert	1 in 20	$131 131 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	251	265.9	0.94×
★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 20	$128 128 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	37	265.9	0.14×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife	1 in 20	$123 123 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	40	265.9	0.15×
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$120 120 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	32	265.9	0.12×
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 17	$115 115 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	320	319.1	1.00×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 17	$61.40 61.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	296	319.1	0.93×
★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 17	$50.27 50.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	355	319.1	1.11×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4BMoetel$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1741,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.91x4h

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4BBlack_Man10$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1741,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.91x3d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B失われた[Panda]$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1741,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.91x4d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4BHad2u$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1741,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.91x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B#RIPBOZO$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1741,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.91x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covertBab$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$845845 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.97x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covertJ o o♿$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$845845 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.97x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covertDr. Weird$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$845845 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.97x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertは性交を与えな$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$822822 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.83x2d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertданилито$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$822822 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.83x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertEthiamach1$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$406406 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.39x11m

★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covertIsukki$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$132132 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.78x11m

★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeCapt. Grandpow$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$144144 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.85x12m

★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covertCapt. Grandpow$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$50.2750.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.30x12m

★ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · goldHarumi$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$144144 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.85x13m

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Harumi$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$161161 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.95x13m

★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertHarumi$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$216216 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.27x13m

★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covertHarumi$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$141141 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.83x13m

★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knifeCaveman Jeff$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$123123 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x16m

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeCaveman Jeff$170170 HOTPIZZA_POINT$61.4061.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.36x16m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.59%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$170	91.59%	44
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$170	91.80%	44

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 38.0%#EB4B4B 0.1%gold 12.5%covert knife 29.0%sunny 3.4%epic 3.0%other 9.0%Immortal 5.0%best hit $1,174 (6.91x)