Budget Baller
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.37
17.91 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.34%
EV $9.93 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
63.84%
441 openings, odds method
Variance
10.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 441 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $278 437 HUNT_COIN | 28.0% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · gold | 1 in 67 | $172 271 HUNT_COIN | 26.0% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 40 | $76.11 120 HUNT_COIN | 19.2% | 8 | 11.0 | 0.73× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $33.26 52.39 HUNT_COIN | 16.7% | 20 | 22.1 | 0.91× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 13 | $11.82 18.61 HUNT_COIN | 8.9% | 33 | 33.1 | 1.00× |
| Souvenir P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common | 22.5% | $0.15 0.24 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 85 | 99.2 | 0.86× |
| Nova | Caged Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 30.0% | $0.15 0.24 HUNT_COIN | 0.5% | 129 | 132.3 | 0.98× |
| AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9 | 30.0% | $0.15 0.23 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 158 | 132.3 | 1.19× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9Hobbi3ten$11.3717.91 HUNT_COIN$0.150.23 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common$11.3717.91 HUNT_COIN$0.150.24 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common$11.3717.91 HUNT_COIN$0.150.24 HUNT_COIN0.01x
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9Hobbi3ten$11.3717.91 HUNT_COIN$0.150.23 HUNT_COIN0.01x
USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covertHobbi3ten$11.3717.91 HUNT_COIN$33.2652.39 HUNT_COIN2.93x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.34%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.37 | 87.34% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.0%gold 1.5%restricted 2.5%red 7.5%Common 22.5%industrial 30.0%#5e98d9 30.0%best hit —