Please knife

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.60

2.52 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.31%

EV $1.40 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

68.86%

228 openings, odds method

Variance

68.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 149

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

24 openings · below min

7 days

150 openings · below min

30 days

228 openings · below min

since tracking started

228 openings · below min

-0.5%199.0%398.5%

Small sample. 228 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	24	67.15%±330.6	—	odds
7d	150	31.95%±132.2	—	odds
30d	228	68.86%±107.2	—	odds
All	228	68.86%±107.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 228 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 10,000	$849 1,338 HUNT_COIN	6.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$679 1,069 HUNT_COIN	4.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$106 168 HUNT_COIN	3.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$103 162 HUNT_COIN	3.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$96.51 152 HUNT_COIN	3.5%	1	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortal	1 in 2,000	$89.58 141 HUNT_COIN	3.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$89.47 141 HUNT_COIN	3.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$88.90 140 HUNT_COIN	3.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$86.53 136 HUNT_COIN	3.1%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives	1 in 2,000	$82.36 130 HUNT_COIN	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$82.36 130 HUNT_COIN	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$77.78 123 HUNT_COIN	2.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$71.61 113 HUNT_COIN	2.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$69.44 109 HUNT_COIN	2.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$61.77 97.29 HUNT_COIN	2.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN	2.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN	2.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$18.95 29.85 HUNT_COIN	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$18.76 29.54 HUNT_COIN	6.7%	2	1.1	1.75×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$18.41 28.99 HUNT_COIN	6.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Red Stone (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 200	$18.06 28.45 HUNT_COIN	6.5%	1	1.1	0.88×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$17.99 28.34 HUNT_COIN	6.4%	3	1.1	2.63×
Nova \| Rust Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	10.0%	$2.46 3.88 HUNT_COIN	17.6%	17	22.8	0.75×
Sawed-Off \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	27.2%	$0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN	0.5%	51	62.0	0.82×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	30.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.3%	73	68.4	1.07×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	30.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.3%	80	68.4	1.17×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert$1.602.52 HUNT_COIN$96.51152 HUNT_COIN60.32x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$1.602.52 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x2h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$1.602.52 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x2h

Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$1.602.52 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.02x2h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$1.602.52 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x2h

Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$1.602.52 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.02x2h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerMarius Tutunaru$1.602.52 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x2h

Nova | Rust Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade$1.602.52 HUNT_COIN$2.463.88 HUNT_COIN1.54x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$1.602.52 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x3h

Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$1.602.52 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.02x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.31%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.60	87.31%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 0.0%covert knife 0.2%covert 1.0%Immortal 0.1%Knives 0.1%classified 0.5%consumer 87.7%restricted 0.5%Industrial Grade 10.0%best hit $96.51 (60.32x)