Good drops
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.20
0.31 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.22%
EV $0.18 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.56%
372 openings, odds method
Variance
7.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 372 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 10,000 | $15.37 24.21 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 100 | $3.46 5.45 HUNT_COIN | 19.7% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 101 | $3.46 5.45 HUNT_COIN | 19.5% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 1 in 100 | $2.10 3.31 HUNT_COIN | 12.0% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× |
| M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $0.33 0.52 HUNT_COIN | 5.6% | 14 | 11.2 | 1.25× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 33 | $0.17 0.26 HUNT_COIN | 2.8% | 13 | 11.2 | 1.16× |
| XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon | 91.0% | $0.08 0.12 HUNT_COIN | 39.5% | 334 | 338.5 | 0.99× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommonSzafir skins.army$0.200.31 HUNT_COIN$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN0.39x
SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$0.200.31 HUNT_COIN$3.465.45 HUNT_COIN17.58x
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$0.200.31 HUNT_COIN$0.330.52 HUNT_COIN1.68x
XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommonSzafir skins.army$0.200.31 HUNT_COIN$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN0.39x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.22%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.20 | 89.22% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 4.0%Consumer Grade 1.0%pink 1.0%industrial 3.0%uncommon 91.0%best hit —