PistolCase
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.17
0.26 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.12%
EV $0.15 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.63%
2,042 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,042 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Tilted (Factory New)weapon · blueLight | 1 in 50 | $1.61 2.54 HUNT_COIN | 21.9% | 41 | 40.8 | 1.00× |
| Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 40 | $1.61 2.53 HUNT_COIN | 27.3% | 61 | 51.1 | 1.19× |
| Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $1.50 2.37 HUNT_COIN | 30.7% | 62 | 61.3 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | Green's Problemsticker · Rare | 1 in 12 | $0.22 0.35 HUNT_COIN | 12.8% | 164 | 173.6 | 0.94× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 84.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 7.3% | 1,714 | 1715.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.12%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.17 | 89.12% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedblueLight 2.0%restricted 2.5%mil spec 3.0%Rare 8.5%consumer 84.0%best hit —