MP9 case

A case on Hunt.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1.63
2.56 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
168.72%
405 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
6 openings · below min
7 days
329 openings · below min
30 days
405 openings · below min
since tracking started
405 openings · below min
2.5%157.3%312.0%

Small sample. 405 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h63.13%±0.00—sample
7d329169.06%±142.2—sample
30d405168.72%±129.0—sample
All405168.72%±129.0—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogHunt.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$194306 HUNT_COIN119.5x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$194306 HUNT_COIN119.5x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$194306 HUNT_COIN119.5x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$194306 HUNT_COIN119.5x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$194306 HUNT_COIN119.5x

Latest dropsnewest first

MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$0.050.08 HUNT_COIN0.03x
MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$0.050.08 HUNT_COIN0.03x
MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$0.050.08 HUNT_COIN0.03x
MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$0.050.08 HUNT_COIN0.03x
MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$0.050.08 HUNT_COIN0.03x
MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · grayMr Blekt0$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$0.050.08 HUNT_COIN0.03x
MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$0.050.08 HUNT_COIN0.03x
MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$0.050.08 HUNT_COIN0.03x
MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$0.050.08 HUNT_COIN0.03x
MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN$0.050.08 HUNT_COIN0.03x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $194 (119.5x)