AWP BOOOOM 10%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.96
6.24 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.28%
EV $3.46 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.16%
388 openings, odds method
Variance
14.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 388 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $128 202 HUNT_COIN | 37.1% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $49.93 78.64 HUNT_COIN | 28.9% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 50 | $33.89 53.38 HUNT_COIN | 19.6% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| AWP | POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 20 | $8.46 13.33 HUNT_COIN | 12.2% | 12 | 19.4 | 0.62× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 90.0% | $0.08 0.13 HUNT_COIN | 2.1% | 358 | 349.2 | 1.03× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialDiabloPhD$3.966.24 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.02x
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialDiabloPhD$3.966.24 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.28%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.96 | 87.28% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.0%covert 2.0%industrial 92.0%Restricted 5.0%best hit —