Zenel

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.28

2.02 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.68%

EV $1.12 from 5 items

Observed RTP, 30d

53.69%

341 openings, odds method

Variance

112.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 182

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

98.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

17 openings · below min

7 days

277 openings · below min

30 days

341 openings · below min

since tracking started

341 openings · below min

-0.5%252.5%505.5%

Small sample. 341 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	17	0.99%±503.8	—	odds
7d	277	48.88%±124.8	—	odds
30d	341	53.69%±112.5	—	odds
All	341	53.69%±112.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 341 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$525 827 HUNT_COIN	23.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$60.34 95.04 HUNT_COIN	26.8%	2	1.7	1.17×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN	24.4%	2	1.7	1.17×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$54.65 86.08 HUNT_COIN	24.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	98.5%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	1.1%	337	335.7	1.00×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.