SHARKV2

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.38

0.6 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.34%

EV $0.33 from 3 items

Observed RTP, 30d

3.66%

92 openings, odds method

Variance

286.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 417

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

38 openings · below min

7 days

62 openings · below min

30 days

92 openings · below min

since tracking started

92 openings · below min

-0.5%271.0%542.5%

Small sample. 92 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	38	3.86%±538.2	—	odds
7d	62	3.66%±421.3	—	odds
30d	92	3.66%±345.9	—	odds
All	92	3.66%±345.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 92 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 417	$132 208 HUNT_COIN	95.1%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 10	$0.05 0.08 HUNT_COIN	1.5%	3	9.0	0.33×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	90.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	3.4%	89	82.8	1.07×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.